US Politics

America does politics so differently to the UK. It's daft.

So, what will the MAGA reaction be when they lose again in November?
Clearly they'll claim the election was stolen again, but I'd bet money that the January 6th attempted insurrection will seem like child's play in comparison.

Yep, as long as the party fucking them over is the right one then it's all good.

I'm getting excited!

I was going to try to ignore it, but I'm getting drawn in as well.

I don't have a view on how close it is anymore, whether it's still Trumps to lose given their electoral system. I suspect that it's still closer than my internet bubble is suggesting.

Still Trump's to lose. When he won in 2016, he lost the popular vote too, but won on the electoral college. I suspect that at the moment, those latest polls show that Harris is just winning by a bigger margin in the states they were going to win anyway. Trump is still leading in enough of the swing states to take the election.

I've got no idea what will happen, but two observations about a possible Democrat win:

If they win by a mile it will be fucking hilarious to see the man baby cry.

He will try to claim that the election was rigged but it will be much harder to make anything of that when you are not the incumbent.

He'll just be a loser whining on truth social. I honestly don't see there be anything at all even close to the Jan 6th insurrection, since this time the controller of the powers that be will be the good guys. Couple with the fact that there is a precedent of unrest, the proud boys will just wander around throwing stones at a prepared police force.

Come on Kamala!

Stop bringing me down man!

Trump and the whole MAGA movement have lost the last two nationwide elections though. They are proven losers. He was most popular when he was the new upstart candidate in 2016 against the very establishment Hilary and even then he lost the popular vote.

He was way up against Biden because of, well, Biden, but now the Dems have a new candidate he is going to lose again. They have 3 months to turn around those swing states.

I'm staying hopeful!

Will be lovely if Harris cruises it beyond the doubt of all but the most loopy wingnut, but another very close defeat for Trump and he will be all out for civil war. Don't think actual civil war is a possibility, but massive violent civil unrest very much is.

Not seen many of these where it translates into seats (or whatever they're called in the US). Isn't it a few swing states that really influence which way the election goes and then loads of states where it doesn't really matter how much vote they get as it is clear cut.

So, what will the MAGA reaction be when they lose again in November?

Thanks to Roger Stone's mental instability, we now know that the "Stop the Steal" campaign was originally prepared four years earlier as the response if Trump lost in 2016. They'll have no shame in rerunning it now, and they're surely preparing to. I wish I had @mashton 's confidence about that gaining no traction. At the very least, a replay of the riots we're seeing here is a possibility.

The 3 Georgia election officials that Trump praised by name at his
rally just passed a rule that can allow MAGA officials to refuse to
certify the election.

They are considering another rule that would let county members delay
cert, by demanding and reviewing documents.

https://x.com/clearing_fog/status/1821217116537884708

Kamala has pulled ahead on polymarket for the first time.

https://x.com/Esqueer_/status/1821538551537762580

When do the MAGA crowd start rioting?

the controller of the powers that be will be the good guys

this sounds...hopeful? State level officials, governers, judges - all can be involved in the election ratification process, many of them are repubs / republican controlled. Just because the Dems have control of the levers at the very top (even then, not all of them as they don't have the supreme court) doesn't mean there's not a lot of stuff they don't have authority over.

Don't think actual civil war is a possibility, but massive violent civil unrest very much is.

I can't find it now, but there was an article on BoingBoing suggesting that the US could end up with a dynamic more like the troubles in Northern Ireland, rather than a civil war with clearly defined geographical front lines etc.

actual civil war

It definitely won't be California, Texas and Florida teaming up to invade Washington, as in Alex Garland's embarrassing film.

Watching some of his press conference just now. It still amazes me that some people see the same thing and get all fired-up. I want to play devils advocate and try and at least think “well, I guess he’s kinda got a point there” but it’s all just fucking mental rambling and saying if certain people are “smart” or not or how expensive the room is that the press conference is in etc.

As someone who has been a aware of 'Electric Boogaloo 2' since it started, I am unfortunately completely unamazed and saddened at that statement

I wonder about the debate and how that will or won’t impact peoples’ voting.

My impression is that Trump-ites would never vote Democrat anyway, but there must be SOME on the fence (the whole “voting a literal criminal in for president” thing ‘n’ all).

I can imagine Trump being taken apart by a younger woman as something he’ll handle poorly ( he will inevitably revert to shouting over her, blasting through some horrendous hyperbole, etc.).

He is so easily rattled that I hope Harris can seize on that and that it makes some kind of a difference.

Damn! Not a bad crowd...

Be nice if the Dems don't continue to betray the folks of Detroit, and all the rest of the plebs in favour of Wall St parasites though... Wonder if that's on the cards at all.

I haven't seen the film but I'm pretty sure that was a deliberate choice? To not make a statement about one side of US politics being right or wrong. He's not literally saying that Florida and California are going to be on the same side

Maybe it's embarrassing in other ways, I don't know

It's like someone gave $100m to some kids to make a movie. There's no story. Nothing about how or why there'd be such an improbable alliance between the 3 states. It's just a series of combat set pieces. And with all that money they didn't even choreograph the combat properly. Hard to believe that Alex Garland could make something so bad.

"I have 10 times, 20 times, 30 times the crowd size" -- Trump gets big
mad at a reporter who asks him about Kamala Harris's large crowd sizes

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1821614631816773876

I had the opposite interpretation.

The origin of the war was purposely unexplained, so as to highlight how immaterial the reasons for war are to the ordinary people caught up in it, whose lives are ruined and transformed beyond recognition by it.

Also, by removing the back story the film is able to transport the people of middle America into a war such as exists in Somalia, Sudan or any number of "foreign" places.

I found this device very effective.

The Cook Political Report, an elections analysis newsletter, has
shifted its ratings for Arizona, Georgia and Nevada towards Harris
–from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up” – the Hill reports:

All three states had been considered “lean Republican” in early July,
while President Biden was still in the race and falling further behind
Trump both on the national level and in the key battleground states.
But with polls showing Harris getting back within the margin of error
of Trump, or in some cases slightly ahead, the three swing states have
been moved to be a “toss Up.”

‘For the first time in a long time, Democrats are united and
energized, while Republicans are on their heels. Unforced errors from
both Trump and his vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance have shifted
the media spotlight from Biden’s age to Trump’s liabilities,’ Cook
Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter wrote in a post explaining the decision.

‘In other words, the presidential contest has moved from one that was
Trump’s to lose to a much more competitive contest,’ she continued.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/aug/08/harris-walz-uaw-detroit-trump-vance-elections-updates

MLK:

Tangerine shit gibbon: