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https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/insurance/car-insurance/how-to-get-cheap-car-insurance/#costcut
Admittedly for car insurance, but also applies to motorbikes - I think the assumption (Trick 2) is that renewing weeks ahead you've got time to shop around and might take your business elsewhere, but at the last minute you have fewer options so fair game for increased premiums...
My renewal was up a lot, did a price comparison 23 days before renewal and was a tiny percentage up from the same company.
Do comparisons
Do it 23 days ahead of renewal