US Politics

We didn't think he could win 1
We didn't think he'd even try for 2
Wonder if a 3rd is on the cards

Ex Prosecutor vs Convicted Felon

bring it…..

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Actually think the Democrats have - to my intense surprise - played an absolute blinder here. Wind totally out of Shrapnel Trump's sails, Genocide Joe no longer a thing and the only doddery old white man in the race now is standing for the Republicans.

Throw in the JD Vance sofa-shagging hilarity and it all adds up to a superb week or so for the Democrats. I think they're gonna win relatively easily here. People have now got something to vote for rather than something really shit they have to accept with as much energy as they can muster to prevent something horrendous happening.

Actually think the Democrats have - to my intense surprise - played an absolute blinder here.

I agree. Behind the scenes somebody fixed an agreement for Kamala not to be challenged. She got her feet under the desk at lightning speed. How did it happen? Who pulled the strings? The Dems are supposed to be crap at unity. The NYT has an arselickey piece about Kamala brilliantly pulling it off by just phoning everyone. But there must be more to it than that https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/24/us/politics/kamala-harris-democrats-nomination.html

The dems are absolutely not going to win relatively easily. Might just be close now, but it's going be too tight to call. IMO.

Bookies make Trump and the Republicans favourites. And he's still very slightly ahead in the polls.

Trump is not going to win. Legal shenanigans aside, I don't think it's even going to be that close. I saw another poll, with Kennedy included and Harris was even further ahead.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-leads-trump-44-42-us-presidential-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-23/

Other polls show Trump ahead

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Remember popular vote doesn't decide the election, same as here.

After a truly terrible 2 weeks for the Democrats and a post convention bump, I think that's about as good as it gets for the GOP. There are 103 days, of smart, charming, younger, former prosecutor vs glowering, batshit, orange, octogenarian, felon to come. Many a slip betwixt cup and lip, etc....but with enthusiasm, readily apparent in both fundraising and volunteering since Harris stepped up, I think the Dems have a considerable edge. Echoes of the Nixon / Kennedy 1960 campaign, ironically with Harris as the incumbent VP.

That wasn't a comfortable win for Kennedy though - about 0.2% in it, about 110,000 votes. Although I am also more optimistic about Harris.

I think Kamala can blossom now that she doesn't have Biden's people trying to make sure she doesn't outshine the old codger.

It was a very comfortable electoral college win, which is what matters. The Republicans have only won the popular vote once in 30+ years. I think Harris gets a fairly blowout win in terms of popular vote, but merely a comfortable one at the electoral college. In the neighborhood of 2020...

A lot of copium in this thread. Trump will still probably win it.

Not really. I was nervous, now I'm less nervous. Same media schtick in the run up to the mid-terms in 2022, with everyone predicting a red wave. Didn't happen. Every time Trumpism is on the ballot, it underperforms. The Republican platform (as much as they even have one....) is almost universally unpopular and they're in the grip of a personality cult for a divisive and unpopular candidate.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/27/23475262/midterm-elections-2022-results-red-wave-democrats

At the time Kennedy being a Catholic was as big a factor as Kamala being black is today.

I think it’ll be close.. too many calcified minds convinced Trump is the answer / future..

Would be awesome though if Harris wins it, speaking to decent moderate hope not hate folk

Great odds on a dem win then.

Don't see any hard evidence for that. The GOP did shite in 2018, lost the Presidency as an incumbent in 2020 and underwhelmed in 2022. What's changed in their platform / offer that's suddenly going to turn that around?

God didn't save him to lose. Or perhaps He did...

I think the running mates could well be the difference. Vance already looking a terrible choice. Who Harris picks will be key.

Terrible is putting it nicely. The waffling about people without kids having no stake in the future, and therefore their vote should count less, just incredible.

Sure, there's that. But also he fucked a couch.
(maybe)

Sofa so good.

Doesn’t mean he’s not fit to be a conservative government leader (see renowned necroporcinophylliac Lord D. Cameron)