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ELbowloh
Nicely written, but are any of those statements or insights backed up by anything other than needing content for paycheck?
E.g. Do we yet know what Reform's total votes received was? In 2015 UKIP got 12.6% and 3,881,099 votes. What was Reform's improvement both as a % and total numbers?
In the last election the Red Wall crumbled with trad Labour voters turned blue for at least a decade to come.
.... That is until we all experienced a never ending shit show of incompetence in the years that followed. I know it's an incredibly hard counter-factual, but if a Tory government with Cameron-levels of ability and ethics* had been in charge would it have been such a landslide? I doubt it.
My 2p is regardless of political conviction there comes a point where a population gags on the stench of incompetence and accept a change must come. I don't discount all the various shifts and other factors, but honestly this election boiled down to:
the Tories are shit and need to go X Starmer is a viable alternative
You can make it more complicated, try and draw out some interesting hot takes to save endlessly rewriting the same article since Partygate. But sometimes it just isn't that complicated.
*hilarious that is their high watermark