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If every Reform voter had voted Tory the result would have been Con 303, Lab 268.
If my grandmother had wheels she would have been a bike.
We have a FPTP system with two main parties, for one to turn the tables the incumbent has to perform poorly. Reform is a symptom of the sickness within the Tory party.
Fox
kl
If every Reform voter had voted Tory the result would have been Con 303, Lab 268.
Alternatively if you (very crudely) take Labour's vote share from 2019 and the other parties' vote share from this year, Labour would have got 328.
From that 5 minutes of spreadsheeting I'm quite happy to conclude Starmer is a lucky bystander during a collapse in the Tory vote and nothing he did had any tangible effect on Labour's vote share.