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The fifth one is closest to what I'm interested in, but only because it highlights why this is not a resolved question (and why the SNP is an important part of the puzzle).
You can see that the collapse in Tory vote is not correlated with Labour's increase regionally, except in Scotland (ish). Again, we need to look at the constituency level to see what's happening. At least two options:
1) The big-brain Starmer hypothesis: there's a handful of safe Labour seats where their share dropped (but they still won) and a number of former Tory seats that they increased their vote in and won.
2) The Corbyn-would-have-won-too hypothesis: the Tories lost votes to Reform (except in Scotland) and Labour won those seats on splits without there needing to be/having been a massive change in votes.Both would explain that plot.
Again, I think we'll see both happened at the local level.
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The Corbyn-would-have-won-too
Is anyone interested in this hypothesis?
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https://x.com/edhodgsoned/status/1809156389371068621?t=MD5mDnVI0q8PX7rmv29Mqg&s=19Apparently he used this datasource (.csv)
https://github.com/inglesp/apogee/tree/main/data/processed
t-v
greentricky
Does this help illustrate the point that majorities got smaller across constituencies which I think is the point you two are discussing?
