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Yup, potentially complex when looking at 650 instances. Doesn't mean don't do it! And if there's an error in the methodology it can be pointed out and corrected. I'm not sure if speculative is the right word, but I get what you mean. But all survey/polling analysis has these limitations. We can never know the causes or things at the individual level. The social world is complex.
The key thing from my perspective is that I'm not looking for confirm anything! I want to see whether the claims being made (on both ends) are justified in the data.
That graph, the first in the post now, shows the complexity.
It’d be interesting to see at constituency level but I feel any conclusion drawn would be very speculative, maybe I’d feel different on viewing the data.
It’s wild how many decided on the day!