General Election 2024

does prof curtice? his coalition is broad, not deep, and very unstable

But if the electorate said a firm “No” to the Conservatives on
Thursday, the enthusiasm for Labour was muted. The party won just 35
per cent of the vote, less than Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 and less than
Tony Blair achieved in his three election victories. Indeed, never
before has a party been able to form a majority government on so low a
share of the vote.

In combination with the Conservatives’ record low share, this meant
that the share of the vote won by Labour and the Conservatives
combined was the lowest since Labour first became the Conservatives’
principal rivals in 1922. At the same time, turnout fell by eight
points to 60 per cent, the second lowest figure since 1885. The drop
was particularly sharp in seats where Labour polled best in 2019.In
the most disproportional electoral outcome in British electoral
history, Labour’s strength in the new House of Commons is a heavily
exaggerated reflection of the party’s limited popularity in the
country.

regardless, good luck to SKSKC - suspect there will be little-to-no honeymoon…

Whitehall has drawn up a list of potential ‘black swan’ events that could upend the new government in its first year; many of them seem unsurprising, even likely: the collapse of the prison estate; the total failure of a hospital system during the now annual winter crisis; the financial collapse of one or more universities; a renewed spike in energy prices and interrupted food supplies… Thatcher said that she felt a deep loneliness on entering Number Ten. Blair said the first emotion he felt after the black door closed was fear. Both grasped the magnitude of the office. Keir Starmer has the most daunting task of any postwar Labour prime minister: the recovery of a comatose economy, a collapsing state, a cynical and exhausted electorate. The stakes could not be higher.