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And seats where greens won or reform Lib Dem’s?
It feels like you are spitting left and right and that any vote here must have come from here because the numbers align?
GoatandTricycle-
And seats where greens won or reform Lib Dem’s?
It's the same thing. You can look at those as well. The question isn't about them though. But the data I want could be used to investigate questions around those parties as well.
Look at the link @greentricky just posted (thanks!). The second figure is essentially what I want to see. It shows movement/change from Tory to Reform and Labour. Cool - I also want to see this at a constituency level - that can offer some insights into the impact of that movement/change. The national level is interesting, but it doesn't answer the question: did this result in a split on the right that got Labour in, or was there enough movement from other parties to Labour to overcome any split.
That is, I want to see the second figure for each constituency not just the national level. I'm not trying to "confirm" anything.
It feels like you are spitting left and right and that any vote here must have come from here because the numbers align?
I don't know what this means. I've already said that we don't know individual voter behaviour. Every analysis is like this.That doesn't mean we don't use aggregated data.
Eh? What am I trying to confirm? I honesty think you'll find cases where Labour have increased their vote share and cases where Reform have split the vote.
The hypothesis is this: Labour increased it's vote share in seats that previously were Tory.
We can test that really easily by just comparing 2024 vs 2019. (Has labour's percentage gone up in seats previous Tory).
However, we know that 2024 and 2019 are not comparable because Brexit stood down in 2019. Therefore we have to account for that change. This is why you need to include Reform in any calculation.
I'm a bit lost as to what you think I'm actually interested in.