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GoatandTricycle
@
I understand that. But that's one data point (and my MP as it happens). There are 650 seats.
If you want to do it per constituency I'd start by looking at the increase in Labour vote (compared to 2019) minus the total Reform vote (2024) compared to 2019 Tory vote. That'll give you an idea of whether it was a move of votes from Tory to Labour, or Tory to Reform (it will be both obviously, but we can't know individual voter behaviour).
More could be done after that, but we'd have an idea of what was happening already with that information.
I'm sure this analysis will come out, but it's taking it's sweet ass time. (Unless I've missed it).