General Election 2024

I fucking hope so too. but I think the rhetoric is them telling us who they are. hope I'm wrong, don't think I am, not sure it matters, it's still transphobic.

Regarding Cass - this headline nails it

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/10/mother-criticises-agenda-from-above-cass-report-trans

also worth noting that no trans people were consulted for the report.

there's lots of stuff out there that's a more academic or evidence based take down of it such as

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/26895269.2024.2328249

this isn't directly about the Cass report, but there is a section on it and the whole things a pretty interesting watch anyway (long though)

https://youtu.be/QLWKYTxLYT4?si=_cxlMWUB8qlzVylK

finally it's worth noting that puberty blockers have been prescribed to kids with precocious puberty for over 30 years, so there's plenty of data on its long term effects despite what we're told.

this.

can't find it now but I remember something about people being shown the labour 2019 manifesto pledges blind and separate to each other and they were largely very popular.

I wasn't being entirely unsarcastic there if it wasn't clear. But Starmer needs to avoid spooking Middle England and while you might regard some of things they want as radical (is not dying a fiery death really that radical? Or not pumping our rivers full of poo?) I don't think they want a radical leader, especially right now after so much instability. Starmer needs to avoid creating Mail fodder or setting the ducks running or whatever the phrase is. Britain is not lfgss or even London.

I would agree but the same time I don’t think the representational voting works great either

No system will be perfect. PR less worse than FPTP imo.

Tory leadership jostling begins

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/05/who-could-be-next-tory-leader-nine-possible-candidates-from-centrist-to-rightwing

Kemi Badenoch Another near-certain contender from the right, her
majority in a revamped Essex seat was slashed from more than 28,000 to
just 2,600.

A Badenoch run would probably be characterised by her habitually
punchy language, often over identity politics, which she despises, and
her apparent ability to turn the most innocuous exchange into an
argument. She has significant support but some Tories worry about her
combativeness.

RE: The Cass Report - this critique from Yale Law School was released this past week

The Review repeatedly misuses data and violates its own evidentiary standards by resting many conclusions on speculation. Many of its statements and the conduct of the York [systematic reviews] reveal profound misunderstandings of the evidence base and the clinical issues at hand,” says the paper. “The Review also subverts widely accepted processes for development of clinical recommendations and repeats spurious, debunked claims about transgender identity and gender dysphoria. These errors conflict with well-established norms of clinical research and evidence-based healthcare. Further, these errors raise serious concern about the scientific integrity of critical elements of the report’s process and recommendations.

.

thanks, I'd not seen this

People seem to be taking up positions that the election was a labour masterclass or evidence that they've failed to achieve anything (or gone backwards), and reform are the real winners. The reality is probably a bit of both (although the SNP also needs to be considered). But I've still yet to see any actual data supporting either position.

Anyone know where I could get a CSV of the 2024 election results per constituency with change in vote from 2019?

That comparison would be a bit hazy due to boundary changes for many constituencies.

Thanks for posting that. I don't want to minimise the value of people with direct experience, but I think it's really important when referencing critiques of scientific based reports to rely on reliable sources from experts in the field.

The people of Britain don't want radical ideas
Have they?

I think all the evidence is that they want the government to be more radical; to address climate change by moving to renewables, to focus on nature and the environment to stop it being trashed and to level set the economy so that everyone can benefit from it, not just a rich elite.

Firstly - the evidence is half the country voted for parties that have limited support for these outcomes.

Second, these can be tackled in methodical, evidence based, idealogically-neutral manner. You don’t need to be radical.

Radical works both ways - trump, brexit, etc are all radical step changes. Being radical doesn’t necessarily give a positive outcome. And, given the incredible complexity of improving health, schooling, poverty and so on, there is a very high possibility that radical change results in unintended consequences.

It seems that at both ends of the political spectrum “radical” is becoming a populist ideology- persistence, focus, and very hard but boring management aren’t sufficient to improve matters. We just need some simple radical ideas and all will be well.

On the former point my understanding is that the evidence is Labour giving up/sacrificing vote share in safe seats (i.e. decreasing) in favour of focusing on converting seats.

But key to this would be setting it against voter turnout. Which I'm not sure how you'd do. But I'm sure can be done.

That comparison would be a bit hazy due to boundary changes for many constituencies.

Yup, but you can (and everyone has been) infer around these. Imperfect but the best we've got.

@hugo7

On the former point my understanding is that the evidence is Labour giving up/sacrificing vote share in safe seats (i.e. decreasing) in favour of focusing on converting seats.

I'm not sure there's evidence of that as much as reporting of that having been the plan. Whether the plan worked in practise (or the vote was just split between Tory/Reform in those seats) is what I want to see. I'm sure we'll see that both will have happened, tbf.

If there is evidence/analysis on this please link!

But key to this would be setting it against voter turnout. Which I'm not sure how you'd do.

I'm not sure about this. Voter turnout is voter behaviour. Not turning up is a vote for something in a sense. You could think of it as the equivalent of voting for a third-party in FPTP (assuming it's not down to an external factor like IDs).

There's definitely more interesting stuff you could do with it (where was it? was it in areas that were historically tory? labour? etc.), but those are different questions.

Let me see if I can go back and find where I heard it.

Emily Thornberry's shift from 22,946 vs 26,897 shows that in some safe seats they lost spare votes.

I understand that. But that's one data point (and my MP as it happens). There are 650 seats.

If you want to do it per constituency I'd start by looking at the increase in Labour vote (compared to 2019) minus the total Reform vote (2024) compared to 2019 Tory vote. That'll give you an idea of whether it was a move of votes from Tory to Labour, or Tory to Reform (it will be both obviously, but we can't know individual voter behaviour).

More could be done after that, but we'd have an idea of what was happening already with that information.

I'm sure this analysis will come out, but it's taking it's sweet ass time. (Unless I've missed it).

Great interview from a few months ago with James Timpson on his views on prisons
https://x.com/krishgm/status/1809503192511602776?t=9DblEs1xSsATLXZ9lmK4Xw&s=19

Will be interesting to see how radical is able to be

https://x.com/ProfTimBale/status/1809494912351527165?t=ffGAoGQp8ifzLXLFbIZFuw&s=19

^ oof!

I think you've nailed it here. And Starmer isn't a radical. He's a methodical, evidence based, detail-oriented politician who's constantly accused of being boring, but who will hopefully be competent. The stall he set out was pretty much 'vote for me and I'll take the drama out of politics'. The most we'll get is radical with a small r from someone whose detractors say is conservative with a small c.

Don't know if anyone has posted this, but a very good read from Prof Chris Grey

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2024/07/the-day-country-turned-on-tory-party.html?m=1

I think I probably agree.

There will be drama though, because that's how our media likes it. There's going to have to be a spending review fairly soon, and they'll turn that into a drama. Hopefully the upcoming Tory leadership contest will provide enough drama to satiate them.

I think you can get it from electionmapsuk

I base that on people on twitter doing all kinds of charts saying they are using that data source