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True - it's a mixed bag. But the pressures post 2016 referendum to get the Tories in for Brexit purposes muddy the waters. I still think the UKIP 12% 2015 share vs Reform at 14% is a realistic one. I am happy to be corrected. But a straight comparison with 2019, when they stood down their candidates doesn't work either.
c00ps
The Tory voters went somewhere and it isn't on mass to labour or lib dem going by vote share gains
Just looked and ukip got 2% in 2017, 12% in 2015, 3% in 2010,