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Refuse to give numbers for the cunt party.
You gave a number for reform...
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I've had a hunch for a while that LDs will be much closer to the tory number of seats than expected, with a slight hope that LDs edge it and become the opposition. That would be the dream scenario obviously. I think even within their core and previously loyal tory voters that the disillusionment is much deeper than the polls suggest. I really hope so.
However I see the flip side to that scenario being Reform hoovering up much of that disillusionment and gaining around 5 seats.
No scientific basis for this and it flies against the polls I've seen, but this is the place for predictions and that's mine.
These are my 3 wishes for the election in order of priority but also decreasing order of probability.
Tories lose election.
Tories pushed to third.
Tom Tugboat loses his seat. My MP and I'm fed up with people saying he's a good tory. He isn't. There's no such thing. -
They are a plc not a party. And is zero a number or an absence of number?
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Go Anna Cope!
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Assume you're all over tugitof tomorrow then?
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Brilliant work. I tried to take my 10 year old so he can see how it works but he wanted an extra 5 minutes of Minecraft instead.
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My boy does the voting - they don't expect electoral fraud from a 7-yr old. He wanted to vote for our neighbour, so he did.
You live next to a candidate on the ballot?!
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Realise there's some Trussite maths going on, but here's my guess:
Party Seats Guess exit polls actual
Con 110 131 121
Lab 420 410 412
LibDem 65 61 71
SNP 20 10 9
Reform 0 13 5 healthy dose of scepticism required for my predictions since I’ve not read the news for 5 years but why not:
- LAB majority (395 v CON 165?)
- SNP better than predicted (30-33?)
- corbyn hold
- debonnaire loss
- sunak hold
- shaheen loss + IDS loss
- farage win
- truss hold
- turnout lower than 2010
- LAB votes lower than
2019 👀2017
can the polls that have been pretty consistent for a year be very wrong?
Quite possibly.
I was chatting to someone who voted Labour but was intrigued by a party they'd never heard of before or knew anything about called Reform. They thought after all the Tory BS politics needs to be reformed.
They were horrified when I explained that it was the new UKIP.
Goes to show that it's easy to make assumptions about how informed people are.
Fucking hell, that is very uninformed!!!!
Tory incumbent has just visited the local Polling Station, looked desperate and was complaining that he doesn’t have as much money for posters as the Greens. I neither sympathise or emphasise (and, despite hoping otherwise, think he’ll hold on for five more years doing nothing locally but enjoying his lucrative side hustles).
exit poll brutal for SNP
Heart emoji.
scorecard
- LAB majority (395 v CON 165?) - a half point since the CON did get triple digits
- SNP better than predicted (30-33?) - NOPE
- corbyn hold - YES
- debonnaire loss - LOL
- sunak hold - YES
- shaheen loss + IDS loss - half point
- farage win - YES
- truss hold - NO
- turnout lower than 2010 - LOL
- LAB votes lower than
2019 👀2017 - LOL
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General election predictions
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@aggi
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I can't imagine him wanting to get involved the the day to day bits of being an MP at Westminster or doing surgery sessions in Clacton. He'll probably be on Question Time even more frequently though...
Back to the predictions though - assuming there is to be a Labour majority, people have been known to lie in opinion polls before. If this is the case now, I could see it only helping the Tories or Reform?