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  • I've had a hunch for a while that LDs will be much closer to the tory number of seats than expected, with a slight hope that LDs edge it and become the opposition. That would be the dream scenario obviously. I think even within their core and previously loyal tory voters that the disillusionment is much deeper than the polls suggest. I really hope so.

    However I see the flip side to that scenario being Reform hoovering up much of that disillusionment and gaining around 5 seats.

    No scientific basis for this and it flies against the polls I've seen, but this is the place for predictions and that's mine.

    These are my 3 wishes for the election in order of priority but also decreasing order of probability.

    Tories lose election.
    Tories pushed to third.
    Tom Tugboat loses his seat. My MP and I'm fed up with people saying he's a good tory. He isn't. There's no such thing.

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