General election predictions

I thought a thread of predicitons would be interesting. No prizes apart from the warm glow of being correct (unless you've predicted a Reform/Tory coalition win). To start off:

Total number of seats is 650 with 18 in NI.

Still expecting them to get about 120/130 seats.
3/4 green, 1 reform, 60ish LDs. Whatever for the forrins and the rest to Lab.

FWIW I am expecting almost exactly the same (though couldn't be arsed to go through the specialty nationals).

Do you think it's wholly outlandish to have a hope of seeing the Libs Dems take the official opposition position? Seen some polls predicting 61 Tory / 64 Lib Dems. I read online that coalitions have happened in the past, were they to be just a few MPs short...

It's certainly within the realm of possibility as a number of polls have them 2nd or within a margin of error. But I think it's unlikely personally even though it would be great if it did happen.

On the optimistic side, maybe the polls don't capture the levels of tactical voting that might happen.
On the pessimistic side, shy tories may be shyer than ever given the shitshow and, while polling as 'don't knows', will still vote tory in the booth. And on the other side, those not keen on Starmer's Labour will see a safe majority coming and vote green/independant/not vote at all.

On balance I expect the latter to outweigh the former and tories to be comfortably second.

Apparently they have an agreement with the Alliance Party in Northern Ireland, so it could be that LD seats + Alliance seats > Tory seats.

I can't see the Tories being able to persuade any of the Unionist factions to do something similar with them these days.

I'm going with Conservatives to get between 70-80 seats, which remarkably, might feel slightly disappointing. All this talk of them not even being second is just too delicious to consider.

Can Falange really win Clacton? I don't think so. I hope he can't. Surely to fuck the average person can see right through that charlatan? 😑

It doesn’t feel like the tories or labour are doing anything much to keep farage out though.
Labours candidate was pulling too much focus from Kier so they sent him off to campaign elsewhere…

It's not a prediction but I just checked stopthetories for my area and it's as tight as a tiger. Hopeful but not confident...

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Presumably in a world where the tories end up on 60 seats, he'll win Clacton. If they end up on 125 seats, perhaps not? Just need to decide which you'd prefer

.https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/03/labour-expects-surge-of-shy-reform-voters-in-some-northern-and-midlands-seats

Well fuck this shit 😑

https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast

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You can't educate pork.

Educate or show the facts of the guy and the party.

Both impossible with these idiots. People who vote Reform UK Ltd/Brexit deserve all the hardship that comes their way.

Surely we've got the election thread and the Tory thread for random center left bitching.

Let's keep this about predictions please.

(I'm still deciding mine but I think Reform won't win a seat)

Sorry, my anger and upset that the racists just won't die.

Can Falange really win Clacton?

Last I heard it was quite likely that he would.

I'd like to see more openness about tactical voting in certain places - for example advising to support Tory in this one instance. I think people would understand and it wouldn't reflect badly on anyone involved.

Controversial opinion, but I'm not convinced it's a bad thing for Farage to be elected to Parliament.

I appreciate it gives him legitimacy, but it'll also expose him to scrutiny and he fucking hates being scrutinised. He'll also barely ever show up and, hopefully, a lot more people will understand that there is no substance to him.

Feel like we heard the same argument when Boris ran.

Remind me how that turned out?

Let me think, he became PM, fucked up the country and exiled the moderate wing of the party before finally getting ousted.

Like Farage he is a vile, stupid buffoon, but chimes with the gammon. Do we really want Farage to get further legitimacy?

He'll also barely ever show up and, hopefully, a lot more people will understand that there is no substance to him.

Maybe, but there's been a lot of space given for people to figure him out over the past 10+ years, and they don't seem to. I don't know which is best in terms of him being elected or not, but I think I'd rather he was seen as a perpetual loser.

Labour in the 430s
No reform MP.
Greens 3-5
Ld 64.

Refuse to give numbers for the cunt party.

Edit: If the cunts are under 90 MPs, some sort of pact and labour "defections" to get the LD as the official opposition.