The fall of the Tory party

can’t believe this thread might actually see the fall of the tory party. i heard less than 100 seats would be an extinction level event, please make it even less, please!
in the annoying parlance of the last decade, ‘2 sleeps till the fall of the tory party’(that is if 3rd-4th is a non-sleep night).

3 sleeps (Monday night, Tuesday night, Wednesday night). With the polls not closing until 10pm Thursday night it is that night that may be sleepless as the results will start coming in late Thursday and early Friday.

i was thinking that was right, well, thanks and here’s hoping the brain fog will lift with the end of toryism as we know it

I'm (hopefully) going to pull a student all nighter with the help of some pro- plus I'm hoping Thursday is going to be a memorable night

I'll be spending Thurday evening until after the exit poll at the Tabernacle, Notting Hill with the Oh God What Now crew (Ros Taylor Dorian Lynskey, and Alex Andreou, with James O'Brian). Then probably Sky News for the night, flipping over to The Rest Is Politics crew on Channel 4.

We're in a media rich era where Politcal Geeks are spoilt for choice as to their election night entertainment, and no need to recourse to the often staid BBC.

Pub post Thursday evening 5-a-side followed up by a 9am dentist appointment on Friday morning.

On a similar note I’m currently having a discussion with a chap (on a car forum) who is certain that Reform are centre-right and that the problem with the Tories is they’re far too left wing.

Some of the most right-wing tossers I have come across, have been on car forums. I used to post on MX5Nutz and there was a handful right horrible bastards posting there. Ask @NurseHolliday.

don't forget your photo id's peeps

don't forget your photo id's peeps

Ads for this appearing all over everything at the moment - assume government funded?

Good reminder.

I postal voted a couple of weeks ago. I really hope we see a momentous result come Friday morning.

Ads for this appearing all over everything at the moment - assume government funded?

No great surprise since they worked out that the new voter ID regs were actually taking away more of the Conservative vote than anyone else.

I carry ID around with me 99% of the time I'm out anyway, so I'm unaffected by it.

Always good to remind people though.

And it doesn't need to be up to date - an expired passport will still work if you still look like the photo.

can’t believe this thread might actually see the fall of the tory party.

One can but hope.
There's is though the danger that They Live in some new form

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I really hope this is not a metaphor. I'm very nervous about Friday morning...

Some of the most right-wing tossers I have come across, have been on car forums. I used to
post on MX5Nutz and there was a handful right horrible bastards posting there

Me too, when looking at Pistonheads. There is an inherent 'powerfully built company director' stereotype, but there's also an underlying snobbish and misogyny which isn't very nice. Fits in with the right-wing tosser description though.

I'm more nervous about the next election in 5 years time.. This time, we see a Tory wipe out with complete domination by Labour. In 5 years time, when Labour have not improved things for the majority, we see mass disillusionment with all "traditional" parties and a consequent massive rise in support for Reform (or whatever their next iteration is). Just look at how France is going - it can (will) also happen in the UK.

So, much as I hate the Tories, we must remember that a decent sized opposition is an important part of a healthy functioning democracy.

(As an aside, I highly recommend Ian Dunt's book "How Westminster Works... And Why It Doesn't")

We got the “Nazis were socialists” post from the Tommy Robinson fan yesterday evening.

Bingo!

Whilst I don't agree with his politics, I find that John Oxley is insightful and reflective on politics. I found this a very acute piece on what has gone wrong for the Tories:

https://www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk/p/spoiler-alert

The conservative candidate @Chrissie_W13 for Lewisham and East
Dulwich thinks:

“20mph speed limits encourage dangerous overtaking and demonise those
who require a car”.

https://x.com/DulwichRoads/status/1808153138983035261

How ob earth does it encourage dangerous overtaking? You not supposed to overtake people doing 20mph as they're driving at the speed limit. Why oh why do car people think they should be able to do what the want when they want, just because they have a big metal box with wheels?

Given how docile this country is generally I do wonder if Brexit, Boris, the ditching the one nation tories and the peak performance of reform this time round IS our populist moment and we are leading the curve compared to Europe.

I'm not sure it is a cycle though. The drivers of populism are established, and set to continue.

• Demographic change and ageing populations requiring ever greater share of government expenditure to go on pension and healthcare funding to maintain a minimum standard of service.
  
• Low growth and low productivity.
  
• Immigration driven by the need for workers in key industries / sectors.
  
• Climate change driving concurrent political / economic / social instability across many areas of the world driving further immigration.
  
• An economic model of globalised capitalism that concentrates power and wealth with a small global elite.
  
• A media that imposes a wall-to-wall omerta on all of the above.
  
• Digital media that enables and facilitates populism, and constantly reinforced the gap between people's aspirations (influencer culture etc), and their reality.
  
• Probably ai makes all this worse.
  
  

Parklife!

it is definitely not a time to be complacent. i hope starmer will be a different prospect than macron though, who tore into/through the state and it’s ‘offer’ to the french people on behalf the bosses as well not being kind or fair to immigrants. i think starmer is aware of the sense of alienation amongst many, and how vulnerable this makes them to support violent acts (including cutting ties with europe, dehumanising the poor and vulnerable in order to justify cuts etc) as an ‘answer’. God knows what he can do about it in 5 years though. Hopefully stuff that can be quickly sorted out in the tories wake will have an effect. however, austerity is baked into uk law with osbourne’s deficit act. So structural things are going to inhibit positive change. While this affects the little person, at the same time you have the people, through wealth and influence, who have been used to having their way in the uk suddenly disenfranchised. what becomes of the networks of vested interests suddenly disconnected from westminister with the murdochs being a case in point? it’s their relationship to the far right that is as much as a worry as the ‘people’s’

Don't think so, think it's only building over time with all the drivers outlined above

Plus the youth like reform

NEW JLP @TheSun: Reform in 2nd place with 16/17 year olds, joint-1st with males

All 16/17s:

LAB: 39%
REFORM: 23%
GRN: 18%
LDEM: 9%
CON: 5%

Males:

REF: 35%
LAB: 35%
LDEM: 11%
CON: 11%
GRN: 2%

Females:

LAB: 43%
GRN: 33%
REF: 12%
LDEM: 8%
CON: 0%

https://x.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1808111523195167158?t=fISDZMVCdftuMbUSgTLMJg&s=19