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The MRPs that presumably they are basing their predictions on are broadly in agreement, with about 400 seats that they all have going the same way.
The area where these predictions fall down is when there are multiple candidates who are likely to get a decent share of the vote, i.e. three way marginals. I don't know if Bristol Central is one of those, but there are about 200 seats where no-one really has a clue who's going to win due to a mix of boundary changes, and volatile electorates who have a choice of three or four candidates who could win.
Reading the Comment is Freed Election Briefing this morning, which covers Suffolk, Norfolk and Northamptonshire and there are lots of seats there which could go Labour, Reform, Tory and even Green. It's going to be fascinating to see how this all plays out.
andyp-
Bristol central is a new (or returning) consitutency, but a two horse race between Carla Denyer and incumbent Thangam Debbonaire - shadow sec for culture, media and sport. Seems it's the survation poll which is predicting labour, yougov and ipsos mori for green
Poll predictions here:
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49809-second-yougov-2024-election-mrp-shows-conservatives-on-lowest-seat-total-in-history
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls/ipsos-election-mrp
https://www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/
jupiz
For those interested, I'd take some of the tactical voting advice from getvoting.com with a pinch of salt. They had bristol central a labour to hold with 55% of vote off newest voting intentions. This seemed surprising given local election results and all the previous data suggesting neck and neck or a green lead. Electoralcalculus.co.uk has greens with a 20 point lead and 50% of vote share, and YouGov has greens taking the seat.
Not sure how analysis of the same data set can lead to such vastly different results, unless someones massively cocked up or telling porkies.