General Election 2024

Local to me.

1 Attachment

For those interested, I'd take some of the tactical voting advice from getvoting.com with a pinch of salt. They had bristol central a labour to hold with 55% of vote off newest voting intentions. This seemed surprising given local election results and all the previous data suggesting neck and neck or a green lead. Electoralcalculus.co.uk has greens with a 20 point lead and 50% of vote share, and YouGov has greens taking the seat.

Not sure how analysis of the same data set can lead to such vastly different results, unless someones massively cocked up or telling porkies.

Always puts me in mind of MR James' story Oh! Whistle and I'll come to you......
"An indescribably horrible face of crumpled linen"
Except in Nige's case, of crumpled old swastika flags

Nice detailing.

It’s definitely interesting. Electoral Calculus has 90% Conservative win and 0% Green in North Herefordshire.

Mind you, given the constituency profile they have compiled that’s not overly surprising.

And saw the first Vote Tory sign today, on a road that in the past would have had Vote Tory outside every house.

1 Attachment

Just out of curiosity is there a list of other constituency profiles like that somewhere. I wonder what my area is like .

There would be almost no choice if the government and opposition were labour and the LD. The new centre of the political spectrum would be just about perfectly placed.

Yeah that would be the ideal, or the presumption, but I just can’t see the likes of The Telegraph being reasonable.

If they’re canny the Ld’s should move to become the natural home of the centre-right voter. That leaves the tories to keep hitting the lunatic juice and trying to outdo Reform, or head back to the centre but then have to come up with some way of differentiating themselves other than “we are the party of grifting incompetents”.

Depends who ends up owning it really.

Just go to https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html, put in your postcode and you get the full breakdown for your constituency

Something I've heard a few pundits say, which I agree with, is that the Tories have backed themselves into a corner with Reform as there is nothing for them to criticise them on.

Reform are basically advocating harder versions of the Conservative policies so how do you counter them?

That said, I think the key is what Tory MPs hold their seats. If the headbangers are largely wiped out that has to change what happens next Imo.

Thanks. I'll be interested where I was born looks like now, it was a two up two down with an outside loo...

Yeah that’s true. Maybe if there’s a shift in the make up of Westminster at the same time as a new owner there’ll only be one direction for them to travel.

All a bit pie in the sky anyway, but one can dream.

Where is Mark Francois in all this? He used to be all over the TV.
Maybe still hurting from his Will Self confrontation?

That said, I think the key is what Tory MPs hold their seats. If the headbangers are largely wiped out that has to change what happens next Imo.

Observer did this today, detailing who's likely to go/stay: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jun/23/tory-big-beasts-who-could-disappear-from-westminster-visualised

Among the remainers (a label they'll love) - Badenoch, Dowden, Braverman, Patel, Chope, Barclay, Gale. So, no, not looking like a wipeout of the howling wolves.

Just driven to and from Alfriston in East Sussex. There were half a dozen "vote conservative" signs along the A27. Pleased to say every one had been vandalised including "Don't vote conservative,"Fuck the conservatives" and just a simple skull and crossbones over the top. Lovely stuff.

Wasn't the poor man's Peter Griffin somewhat publicity shy during some rape allegations?

Ah, so much scandal it’s hard to keep up.

I think that when things settle, that tories will be way ahead of the LDs and reform as the opposition. They'll be smashed but probably get 150 seats rather than the extinction forecasts. That's my armchair psephology anyway.

for interest, a friend has done a comparison site for the different mrp predictions & also the different tactical voting sites https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/tactical-voting/

Thanks. What confuses me is I think they’re working off the same poll data?

If labour voters hold their nose & vote lib dem..

I can't see Braverman making whimsical travelogues in mustard cords, her getting binned off would be the end of her.

https://x.com/MatthewStadlen/status/1804967128820572338