General Election 2024

While I don't agree that a labour majority is a given I have serious concerns voting for the labour parachute candidate.

They've not done any canvassing of any sort that I've seen, not even a leaflet or radio interview to say what he would do as a local candidate.
The greens are all over the shop.

The only other contact I've had was a Tory letter on HoC letter head relating to a subject I'd never contacted them on.

Thought you might. Thats why I wrote my feelings, to provide a counterpoint. :)

I think today is the last day to apply for postal voting
https://www.gov.uk/how-to-vote/postal-voting

I'd rather Labour didn't have the 'thumping-majority' many on this site are excited for and if a vote for Green somehow changed that I would definitetly vote Green.

In my safe Labour seat I'll still vote Green, not from a moral perspective per se, but from a practical sense of contributing to the 'other' left vote in national statics. Anyone who thinks that means I'm indifferent to whether the Tories gets voted out is either dim or disingenous.

edited for the pendants

Going back to this, aren't all school fees paid up front? You need to pay for the term for them to let your child back so it's just a matter of scale.

No because they are only fixed for the year. It's likely that fees will go up by an unspecified amount in future years.

I don’t think you understand what a ‘supermajority’ is.

I voted Sadiq in the London elections despite my politics being more alligned to the Greens. Mainly because I think he's stood by his principles (ULEZ & Gaza) despite being thrown under the metaphorical bus by the Labour leadership. /csb

Hence the quotation marks.

Great for you that you're in a solid labour constituency so can say things like that.

However, both May and Johnson's election success shows that these things aren't set and can change very quickly.

If Starmer gets:

• a moderate majority of seats
  
• incredibly low popular vote
  And Reform get:
  
• a small number or Tory of Old Labour seats
  
• relatively large number of votes
  
  

What do you think that will do to Labour's plans over the next 5yrs?

The only way we will get any meaningful change in this country is an undisputable thumping majority. That Starmer is trying to appeal to the majority shouldn't be a reason for people to throw their toys out the pram, it is democracy and concensus politics in action.

After the last election we were looking at a Conservative government in perpetuity. The level of utter complacency from certain quarters of this forum staggers me.

Think this is directed at my last comment. I’m not excited for a ‘supermajority’, I’m terrified at any prospect of the tories clinging onto power in any way.

Your suggestion that your green vote is because you are in a safe labour seat is analogous to my point about checking tactical voting sites. For your area, I imagine, you would be advised to vote with your heart because of the existing majority. It’s useful as you clearly are, to be mindful of whether one is in a marginal constituency or not.

Firstly, a 'supermajority' isn't a thing here. You are just talking about a very big majority. Supermajority has a different and specific meaning.
And while everyone should vote as they want, assuming that Labour will get a huge majority feels a bit brexit-vote like. However one feels about Starmer and where he has taken labour, they are the only option to ensure we don't have the tories in power any longer and being complacent that that will happen is a risk. IMO.

Tactical voting to make sure the local Tory/Reform candidate doesn't win is one thing, but the suggestion that Starmer needs a huge popular vote to enact policies is completely different.

I'm happy to do the first, but I'm actively against the latter.

The real complacency is the lack of thinking about what happens in 5 years time when people's living standards haven't changed because Labour have completely boxed themselves in over tax and spending. Sure, Labour are going to win this election, but the left (or even centre left) are losing in the long run.

Great for you that you're in a solid labour constituency so can say things like that.

I would say it anyway, and act on it and vote for what I want anyway.

For me, I am reduced to be a single issue voter... the turkey who does not want to vote for Christmas.

The Tories are a vote for Christmas, and Labour have committed, on the single issue I care about, to also be a vote for Christmas.

I'll vote for my survival, and because Christmas is going to come anyway I'll then do what I can to survive despite it.

What I won't do is use my vote to further empower a "we have a mandate to make Christmas happen"... I'm a turkey, and won't vote for Christmas.

That there may be so many secondary factors that say "oh but Labour are better than the Tories in this way" is a moot point, why would I vote against my own existence? All other considerations are secondary.

On my second issue... Labour are still virtually indistinguishable from the Tories... so even if I were at peace with the first issue (and I am far from at peace with it), then the second is also an existential issue and still represents turkeys voting for Christmas.

It really doesn't matter to me whether we have a Labour or Tory govt when on the biggest issues of my life I cannot tell them apart.

I used to argue the differences vociferously, and clearly I acted, campaigned, and fought for those differences, but time passes and I am older, and the single issue is fundamental to me and cannot be ignored, and Labour have not committed to do anything here, well... they have, they've committed to do nothing and accept the Tory position, and I won't vote for Christmas.

In many ways I also hope to show you that there are a lot of previously Labour voters who won't vote for them this time.

So yeah, don't assume a Labour victory... if you want it, you go vote for it.

But also... don't assume Labour are better than Tory for all those who are actually very left leaning, that's not always true.

Going back to this, aren't all school fees paid up front?

In most instances people are only paying up to ~9 months ahead, e.g. it's August and they're paying for the next school year which starts a month later, or you pay termly and it's March and you need to pay for the summer term that starts in April.

That's quite different from paying for 2/3/4/5/etc years in advance.

You need to pay for the term for them to let your child back so it's just a matter of scale.

Not really, because the tax position could change such that different years are treated differently, but if you're paying for the current/upcoming year (as in the example above) the tax situation is not expected to change during that year.

Paying in advance for schools is a tricky thing as the school has no idea how it may need to raise prices in the future. Whilst the schools like some extra capital early on they can get themselves into trouble by spending it. Plenty of private schools have financial issues if they're not run properly (and that was before Covid).

On matters of health and education I can't see how you can vote anything except Labour (unless you aren't dependent upon state education or the NHS) I've got a soft spot for the greens but some of their policies seemed naive to me. For example a wealth tax on individual taxpayers with assets over a billion at 2%. Do ay billionaires hold over a £1bn of assets in their own name? Even under the current tax regime across the piste I doubt that. Corporate structures would completely obfuscate that pledge.
TBH we need proportional representation

What's the single issue you're talking about, if you don't mind disclosing it?

I think for a lot of people, Labour just represent a functioning government without a far right element.

I’d vote for that over the alternative!

I get the antipathy towards Labour, and I think it's to be expected as they've chosen to present themselves in a way that doesn't cause alarm to those centre-right voters who may help them get elected. It's disappointing, but I completely understand why they've done it. Winning is the goal and you do what you have to do in order to achieve that.

I hope once they are elected, especially if they have a large majority, that they move away from this cautious, defensive stance and make the structural changes that are so clearly needed. I see hints of this in things that are said, but I'm also aware I might be projecting to make me believe that they will do the right thing.

In my seat they've had more than 50% of the vote forever, it looks like that will increase significantly.

Out of curiosity, and as you seem ideally placed on this given that you are in a seat that has massively changed boundaries and run a tactical voting website, any idea how these are modelled for seats where the boundary has changed quite a bit?

He also described Winston Churchill as “abysmal”

This does not seem like it is going to be a winner for a Reform candidate.

I often think this is why it's important that people do vote for parties like the Greens, especially when people are so confident that Labour will get in. If Labour see that a large voter base is interested in Green and their policies, I'd hope it would make Labour realise that they're losing people to such policies and begin to shift that way again to bring them back?

.

But if the school offers a prepay then they are offering to fix at that price.

Edit. Charging long term is a choice of the school. I'm simply arguing that if a school chooses to offer 1 term to 5 years payment up front that's a choice and they live with it. Any tax due will be paid at point of payment not down the line as the service has been paid for.

If you pay a builder to do work up front and the tax levels change before he does the work you don't pay extra.

any idea how these are modelled for seats where the boundary has changed quite a bit?

With a lot of complexity.

In essence by taking historical voting patterns, other boundary information of different granularity like council elections, etc, and attempting to project from those the likely demographic, and then mapping the existing polling to the demographic.

Most tactical voting websites will just show historical seat voting, as it's unambiguous and easy to communicate, but their recommendations are made in a more complex way to try and make the most likely to win recommendation factoring in the changes.

There are a lot of spreadsheets involved.