General Election 2024

That's kind of my point, we're kind of saying the same thing. The "What happens if the law is changed and VAT becomes chargeable on school fees?" section outlines the near future but not the longer term.

What it doesn't say is that the result of the Government trying to change the "time of supply" rules could be a series of long drawn out legal challenges (there is related precedent that such retrospective tax applications are incompatible with the human rights act). But if it does go to court:

• If the challenges win (and "time of supply" cannot be modified in this case) then the Government loses out on the chance to collect VAT on these advanced fees
  
• If the challenges fail then a whole load of people end up owing HMRC a load more money
  
  

Neither of these are good for the Government.

So what most people in this situation will do is pay in advance and hedge the VAT money elsewhere. If it ends up being due at some point it can be paid, if it ends up not being due then it's another bonus for Tarquin's/Tilly's trust fund.