General Election 2024

His policies leave a £150bn hole in the annual budget apparently.

Here's Labour's additional tax burden overlaid on top of the UK tax receipts 2023-24 (for proportional reference).

Source: https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/06/14/our_take_on_labour_manifesto_2024/

You'll note that Council Tax isn't that big a chunk of UK tax receipts. But increasing it by about 20% would be enough to fund all of Labour's plans.

Reform's equivalent is here: https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/06/17/reform_uk_manifesto_2024/

Is it retrospective tho? it's for a service in the future that is usually paid for at the time and is being offered just for the chance it will be exempt.

Is it retrospective tho?

It's retrospective in the legal sense as the tax laws that would apply haven't been enacted yet.

https://hallamsolicitors.co.uk/news/retrospective-legislation/

Of course Labour could enact laws that say it is retrospective, but then it'll be challenged in the courts and it is expensive either way that case goes.

https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/05/09/private_school_vat_risk/#:~:text=The%20basic%20idea%20of%20the,of%20VAT%20on%20school%20fees.

That's kind of my point, we're kind of saying the same thing. The "What happens if the law is changed and VAT becomes chargeable on school fees?" section outlines the near future but not the longer term.

What it doesn't say is that the result of the Government trying to change the "time of supply" rules could be a series of long drawn out legal challenges (there is related precedent that such retrospective tax applications are incompatible with the human rights act). But if it does go to court:

• If the challenges win (and "time of supply" cannot be modified in this case) then the Government loses out on the chance to collect VAT on these advanced fees
  
• If the challenges fail then a whole load of people end up owing HMRC a load more money
  
  

Neither of these are good for the Government.

So what most people in this situation will do is pay in advance and hedge the VAT money elsewhere. If it ends up being due at some point it can be paid, if it ends up not being due then it's another bonus for Tarquin's/Tilly's trust fund.

...

Of course, there are a whole load of people who can't afford to hedge the extra 20% and so many of them will be pulling their kids into the state sector (I know a few people who are having to do this, not just because of VAT but also knock on effects of Brexit).

Somewhere around half the kids at my daughter's state primary went on to fee paying schools. Some of those parents won't bat an eyelid at paying an extra 20%, some will be moving their kid back to state education as they just can't afford the extra hike, most are somewhere in-between (and erring on the "staying put and sucking it up" side).

Interesting discussion overheard this evening at my daughter's sports training where she is the only state school kid out of ~20. I think I'd be lynched by the others if I said I'd be voting Labour and I approve of their policy on this (albeit not with their immediate implementation). I'm tempted though.

I thought you were making the point that the government were unlikely to attempt to claim that VAT but it's not really clear reading back.

My point was that the gov will attempt to claim that vat (and that they will be successful).

My point is that it's not going to be simple for them if they decide to try and do so.

If they try to claim the money they may get ruled against by the courts.

My guess (and it is just a guess) is that they won't try to make it apply retrospectively. The sums involved are relatively small compared to the ongoing revenue stream so it's unlikely to be worth the legal hassle of the inevitable challenges.

Reform candidate, Jack Aaron thinks Hitler was “brilliant” and that President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was “legitimate”.

The sum of all parties added together does not match the Tory vote in Arun. Not sure tactically voting for Labour, as recommended, will make a difference.

I run a tactical voting website and provide a huge amount of data and analysis to several websites, and yet I'm so disillusioned with Labour that I've already voted Green.

Labour victory is such a certainty that people should just vote for what they really believe in.

Though the exception to that is if it's a seat Reform are in, as blocking them is necessary just to ensure people in those seats are represented well after the election.

On top of that another Reform candidate, Ian Gribbin, claimed...

...the country would have been “far better” off if it had “taken
Hitler up on his offer of neutrality” instead of fighting the Nazis.

Ian Gribbin, who is standing in Bexhill and Battle, also wrote online
that women were the “sponging gender” and should be “deprived of
health care”.

He also described Winston Churchill as “abysmal” and praised Russian
president Vladimir Putin, according to the BBC.

Labour victory is such a certainty that people should just vote for what they really believe in.

Large parts of the French population said something like that in numerous 1st round elections and ended up with a choice between someone they disliked intensely, and someone they hated (2002 the first time I voted there, it was Chirac and Le Pen). Ensuring the most minimal chance of representation for both Tories and Reform is, IMO, more important than assuming winning is guaranteed.

Last UK election it was pretty much a certainty that there wouldn't be a spectacular collapse of Labour support but what we got was just that.

Labour victory is such a certainty that people should just vote for what they really believe in.

I think this is a mildly irresponsible piece of advice.

Electorates are broad, not deep. A lot of people can change their mind at the same time, in response to the same trigger response.

The Labour victory is only certain if they actually win.

Let's not trip over the carpet that the Ming vase plinth stands upon, before depositing said vase.

(tortured metaphor is tortured)

Complacency is the enemy.

I think this is a mildly irresponsible piece of advice.

Probably reflects my total lack of belief and disillusionment at Labour TBH.

In my seat they've had more than 50% of the vote forever, it looks like that will increase significantly... I know quite a few friends in Liverpool, Bristol, other parts of London, etc that are in similar positions, none of us voting Labour this time round.

I will likely never vote for them again, not even if it lets a Tory govt in.

Disagree with your second sentence. A vote in this election should be guided by how much you don’t want the Tories in power any more. If you want them in Government, vote for them. If you don’t mind either way, vote however you feel like. If you don’t want them in power, use the various tactical voting websites to help work out who the most likely challenger to the Tory vote is in your area.
Don’t assume labour are going to win.

Strong disagree.

+1 for this.

Yes Tories, bring out the Bozza, that will definitely turn the tide

With Truss as chancellor.
What could go wrong?…

Going back to this, aren't all school fees paid up front? You need to pay for the term for them to let your child back so it's just a matter of scale. I doubt a government would win this or likely try. It's the visual and the long term change they are after.