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I don't think there will be a lot of impact to the state in terms of the numbers going private. Currently 7% of children are privately educated. Perhaps that drops to 6% which would be a big change to private schools but is an extra child per class in the state sector. Money goes to schools based on role and the exchequer has extra cash from the VAT.
jellybaby
I am not sure it is a good idea to do it first, without the provision in place to deal with any fall out.
But, whatever the impact of this policy is, it will be a less worse than another Tory govt.