General Election 2024

I'd love a manifesto of scrapping the royals, the Lords and renationalising rail and the utilities

Sign me up

Reform obviously blew the budget before they had chance to do an election broadcast then.

omg reform tv broadcast.

amey my dear sweet child, I am not in the least optimistic but you have to take your pleasure when you can, whether it be on the flat bed of a scaffolders' truck or in savouring the Conservative party's agony. There will be plenty of time for despair later.

Thanks for the explanation.
I'm viewing all these bile raising social media posts
as fishing attempts to bring more waiverers into the Labour tent.

Faith based politicking.

Still a better option than politicking from the opposition benches.

I understand the frustration but pragmatism really is the better way here.

First poll landed with reform ahead of the tories
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1801329280858591268?t=3dwC_98bs4QY78p_820ZLQ&s=19

Nigel Farage's Reform Party has overtaken the Conservatives in the polls for the first time
 
A Yougov survey for The Times finds that Reform has increased support by two points to 19%. Tories are on 18%.
 
The poll was carried out after Rishi Sunak launched the Tory manifesto on Tuesday
 
However eight in 10 of those backing Reform said a very large majority for Labour would be bad for the country
 
Lab: 37% (-1)
Reform: 19% (+2)
Con: 18% (nc)
Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
Green: 7 (-1)
SNP: 3 (+1)
Plaid: 1 (nc)
Other: 2 (+1)

That the Faragists are tracking to win 20% of the vote doesn’t feel like a good thing nor reason to celebrate. If those numbers rise (wins from floating voters and a pact is formalised between T*ries and them) then the Populist Right looks more like the European direction of travel?

I notice Reform are at 21% for men and 12% for women. No more than a 2% difference for any of the other parties.

Yep. Was just pointing out that the whole thing is on trust and that trust can be well placed or misplaced but just because something is in a manifesto doesn't mean it's good or will be done well (Brexit) and just because something you want isn't in the manifesto doesn't mean you won't get it (BOE rate setting independence) basically the manifestos are worthless and take on trust the party of your choice.

This time round it's not even that complicated, you just vote for whichever party will help ensure a Tory doesn't win in your constituency

Do you want the glossy fairlight pdf, or the design docs from the engineers?

If one fell for the Johnson 2019 promises/lies,
and allowed your centre right social preference to over ride your centre left economic expectations, after 5 years of turmoil and let down, are you more likely to continue your drift rightwards, towards Reform, or feel the pull towards Starmer?

Edited to replace opening, easily misconstrued 'you' with 'one'.

Tories are fifth place now with under 50's, how do they recover from that

This time round it's not even that complicated, you just vote for whichever party will help ensure a Tory doesn't win in your constituency

Given the boundary changes that have affected a majority of seats in the country, it really is quite complicated this time round, as it is not obvious many seats as to who is more likely to unseat the Tories.

Hopefully never.

Think tories are suppressed by people who would of voted for them saying they won't vote this time, which elevates reforms share but yes there is no reason to think we wouldn't drift right as a nation like Europe if the right right party comes along. Farage isn't enough to attract large numbers of young people but has stated he is doing this now so fresh blood can take over for 2029, a younger charasmatic leader and some pro young people policies, more childcare, more houses etc and you could see the right getting a lot larger share. The young haven't drifted left in Europe and the UK is an outlier in that and most likely due to a fairy anti youth last decade rather than some socialist shift

One thing that I always look for in announcements is how they treat people with student loans from a tax perspective. I asked Keir in person about this last year and the answer I got was "we need to look at it". Not seen anything from labour on it.

Graduate finishing this summer, assuming they start on 25k, will pay a 41% marginal rate of tax (20% income, 9% student loan, 12% NI) for 40 years and their interest bill growth will outstrip capital repayment, unless they start on triple that.

Get to 51k, and this jumps to 51% (40% income, 2 higher rate NI, 9% student loan). With greens proposed changes, person on 51k pays 6% more and their marginal rate gets to 57%.

Saw reform offering to scrap interest. Won't do much as most people don't repay it, so total balance irrelevant and the amount you pay back is unaffected. Interesting that it is on their radar.

At 100k with student loan and child benefit, you could be at 70-77% marginal rate.

See https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/06/06/tories_accidental_70_percent/ and https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/03/10/infographic_marginal_rates_2024/

Me? I didn’t.
But I guess your ‘If you’ was aimed at some general ‘you lot’ I can’t speak for anyone else
I’m just worrying about the threat the two populist(?) pugilists could represent should they get their shit together (however unlikely I hope that is)
Those ‘you lot’s’ party fucked them so who knows who they’ll cleave to?

They need to get Andrew Tate or a similar twat off TikTok.

Opening 'you' now edited to generic 'one' for general case.

:)

Apologies, I was saying that both of those outcomes were bad (BoE independence and brexit), and ultimately a strategy of hiding intent is not good for the democratic process.

The manifestos clearly are worthless in practice, but they really ought to be meaningful.

Did anyone see Reform's broadcast? Just a silent nothing. Maybe they've run out of money or had a tiff. https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/reform-uk-election-broadcast-farage-b2562318.html

Worked and working in getting noticed.

If they went for a "normal" PEB would anyone comment or even know of it's existance ?

It says they have no policies or ideas or personalities. Great message.