General Election 2024

You are reading a single comment by @jsabine and its replies. Click here to read the full conversation.

•

greentricky

GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL

We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election.

Seats tally

CON: 66
LAB: 476
LD: 59
Reform: 0
Green: 2

This accounts for tactical voting

Bit more analysis in the thread
https://x.com/MarwanData/status/1796633036395622814?t=275pGPt7PGpDD-Igsf8dxA&s=19

•

jsabine in reply to @greentricky

There's no reference in the thread to which areas of the UK have been excluded, although those figures show nothing for SNP, PC or any NI parties, and total to 603.

Given 650 constituencies, with 533 in England, 40 in Wales, 59 in Scotland, and 18 in Northern Ireland, you can't get to 603 MPs with any combination of whole nations.

Much as I want to believe that analysis, I'd be more comfortable with their maths if they explained the gaps.

•

greentricky in reply to @jsabine

They have the full breakdown with all parties here
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

About

@jsabine started