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Thanks - I thought about it too late to get a steering wheel lock for tonight, but have let a couple of tyres down and will leave the window open tonight.
I'll take it to get the key recoded tomorrow and will start using Faraday bags.
I'm sure I'm overthinking it: it's more likely something to do with the neighbours (who had the police visit at 4am a few weeks ago). Why would you leave the tape on the camera if your wanted to come back and steal the car, surely you'd remove it so it didn't flag anything suspicious?
Anyway looking forward to a light night's sleep, jumping to the window every time a fox rattles the milk bottles/bins...
Some advice here
https://www.psni.police.uk/safety-and-support/roads-and-driving/preventing-car-and-vehicle-theft/preventing-keyless-car-theft