The fall of the Tory party

Twice in the past week I’ve heard things that make me think twice about being hopeful.
First one was a snippet I heard walking past some old people: ‘he’s got four houses and is terrified that Labour are going to get in’.

Second one was talking to my FIL: ‘when Labour get in the economy will crash …. they’ll go after people like us’. This is a retiree who previously ran a moderately successful small business, very comfortable but minimal assets other than their pensions and house. Fucking delusional that he’s what’s referred to as ‘the rich’.

I'm with the bookies

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I do wish that bookies would use percentages rather than fractions. Is there any reason for it other than a history of in-person betting that’s more easily communicated with speech?

You can switch most to decimal odds, which are a bit easier to understand.

They don't display percentages as then you'll work out that all of the options add up to way more than 100% which is one reason they make their money (it's called the overround).

I've never actually bet on anything but it's often confused me no end. That makes a lot of sense, thanks.

For example, take West Ham v Liverpool tomorrow.

Ladbrokes are offering 24/5, 18/5, 1/2 on West Ham, Draw, Liverpool respectively.

In decimal odds those are (24/5)+1 = 7.25, (18/5)+1 = 3.6, (1/2)+1 = 1.5

From there you can calculate the percentage chances: 100/7.25 = 13.8%, 100/3.6 = 27.8%, 100/1.5 = 66.7% (all to 1dp).

Now if you add them up you get 13.8% + 27.8% + 66.7% = 108.3%

That 8.3% helps ensure the bookies make a profit long term (even if they lose out on an individual event). In reality they offload most of the risk (trading with other bookies, betfair, etc) so that they pretty much guarantee that they'll make 1-2% regardless of the outcome of event.

Back in the early days of online betting you could often find bookies trying to compete with each other, and you'd find them offering better odds on different outcomes, such that you could spread a stake across multiple bookies on the different results and guarantee a profit. This is known as an arbitrage (or an arb for short).

For example, if most bookies were offering similar odds to the above but one bookie priced a West Ham win at 35/4 (so decimal odds of 9.75) the West Ham percentage is now 10.26% and the total percentages would add up to 98.7%. You could then bet a nominal £100 stake split as:

• West Ham - £10.40 at 35/4 (decimal 9.75)
  
• Draw - £22.03 at 18/5 (decimal 4.6)
  
• Liverpool - £67.57 at 1/2 (decimal 1.5)
  
  

In all 3 cases you stand to win > £100 (your total stake). Only about £1.36 extra, but it's still a 1.36% profit on a single bet. Try finding a 1.36% guaranteed return in a single afternoon.

You'd sometimes find the arbs as good as 95%, which were a big payday. If you had £10000 to stake you'd earn £500 guaranteed "risk-free"* profit.

For a while, back in the early 2000s I made a good chunk of money each weekend doing this, but it didn't last long as I quickly got blacklisted from most of the local bookies, and the online bookies, plus it was a lot of work and a lot of stress (especially if the odds shortened before you'd laid all three bets). The outlier bets were usually only available to walk in customers in bookies, which meant a lot of traipsing around on a Saturday lunchtime.

The bookies eventually got wise to these and checked each others odds a lot more carefully which has pretty much eradicated the arb. The "odds boost" things do occasionally make it possible though.

After that I moved on to value betting as described in the bible of the time: https://www.waterstones.com/book/fixed-odds-sports-betting/joseph-buchdahl/9781843440192

That worked for a while (probably only ~£200 profit a weekend from a £5000 total stake) but was way riskier as a bunch of shit results could wipe you out. At least most of it could be done online and was less likely to trip the online bookies "betting system" alarms. I stopped because the margins were getting squeezed more and more and I could easily see gambling seriously fucking up my life so I stopped completely.

(Like most gambling things, I reckon the author of that book probably made more money writing about it and selling books than he did from the gambling itself. C'est la vie.)

#csb

(Those election date odds add up to 109.2% which means there's a considerable amount of uncertainty in them. A rough rule of thumb is that the higher the overround the less sure of the relative probabilities the setter of the odds are.)

20/1 for 2025 or LATER, bit scary. A reasonable change they’ll go full trump with braverman calling in her EDL thugs

This Parliament will automatically dissolve on 17th December, with an election 25 days after that. Sunak could, of course, introduce legislation to change that, but he'd face a lot of resistance, possibly even from elements of his own party, if he did that.

It would be interesting to see what happened if they tried to cling to power. There would have to be an election at some point, one assumes, and the British electorate don't like politicians who break the rules.

I think for once, the Lords would stop it in that scenario. It's the fixed term Parliament Act, so you'd need the Lords to approve an amendment via a Bill, which I can't see happening.

It depends if the Tories could flood the chamber with those hereditary peers who never normally vote. It’s happened before.

But, yeah, I think you’d be entering constitutional crisis territory if they attempted to cling to power.

Scary...they are still some way short of a majority though, so the same games from the other side should insure against that. Most conservative Lords would probably be against it anyway. Hopefully a non starter!

Great post. Thank you!

Reasons to call a GE on Monday?

A bit of a suprise? Maybe sunak has to, maybe some letters have gone in?

Honestly I can't see any real advantage. I'd like it to happen and I hope it motivates people to come out on Thursday to vote against, give 'em a real drubbing!

Doesn’t the king just call the election if they time out, or at least I think he has something to do with it.

Reasons for calling an election on Monday, wrong footing plotters in his party that want to use Thursday as a catalyst for getting rid of him. I also think he’s lying about having a airplane for his rwanda flights too and that will be found out if they go any longer

I don't think the king can do it off his own back so much as the extant legislation automatically dissolves parliament at the end of 5 years

Is reading that book going to make me want to be a gambler? I find the maths fascinating but have a bit of an addictive personality so have never laid a bet and don't want to start. I'd love to understand it though

Excellent and informative, thanks!

Is reading that book going to make me want to be a gambler? I find the maths fascinating but have a bit of an addictive personality so have never laid a bet and don't want to start. I'd love to understand it though

I had a long running interest in maths and read the book around the time I started doing an OU maths degree so it was perfectly timed. After working through loads of stuff and modelling it on years and years of previous data I found there was a small bit of money to be made, but the risk was huge, too big for me wanting to have stability for me and my family.

If anything it reinforced the idea that to win at gambling you either have to spot something no-one has (which is very unlikely) or just be lucky.

Same author has written some more up to date books, I've never read any of them though.

In reality they offload most of the risk

How do they do this?

The fact you were quickly banned for arbitrage tells you all you need to know about the long run prospects of beating the bookies, I guess. Gambling should never have been deregulated and normalised as it has been. One of the greatest policy failures of New Labour.

Defection! Should have been done at PMQs, alway in two minds about Tory to Labour defections, but it’s not like it’s a red wall Tory try to save there job

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/27/top-tory-mp-defects-to-labour-in-fury-at-nhs-crisis?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Edit, not going to stand at the next election.

How do they do this?

They hedge their position by placing the same bet with other bookies, so that if they have to pay out they also receive a return from the bets they've placed to cover it. It reduces their profits if the event doesn't happen, but limits their exposure.

It's not gonna get any better:

Rishi Sunak refuses to rule out July election amid record low poll
rating

Prime minister says he is not distracted by poor personal ratings as
rebel MPs are said to be plotting to oust him after local elections

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/28/rishi-sunak-refuses-to-rule-out-july-election-amid-record-low-poll-rating?

I think sometimes the problem is that they do seem to go after the people who have a small amount as it’s Easier than going for them than the big companies that are ripping the cunt!

they do seem to go after the people who have a small amount

wondering who "they" are - HMRC?