I don't see Merc wanting Ocon unless it's for a single year. He's not an upgrade on Russell, has a rep for being hard to work with and they have Antonelli in the wings so he's not going to want to risk it all for a year at Merc.
To be honest that's exactly why I think Ocon will go there. Hold Atonelli's seat for a year. I haven't been following F2 too closely, but he hasn't exactly been setting the world alight. So I imagine they'll want to keep a close eye on the performance. I'd be surprised if he gets the Merc seat next year. I'd be betting on him taking Sargeant's seat.
But why would Ocon do it unless Alpine want to cut him loose? He's pretty much even-stevens with Gasly so unless they have a gamble on a junior like Doohan who they might think is better, it'd be a strange choice to not renew him.
Because Alpine seems like a complete dumpster fire from an organisational and car/engine design point of view. I'd bet that Alpine would rather hang onto its current pairing as more uncertainty is the last thing they need right now.
To be honest that's exactly why I think Ocon will go there. Hold Atonelli's seat for a year. I haven't been following F2 too closely, but he hasn't exactly been setting the world alight. So I imagine they'll want to keep a close eye on the performance. I'd be surprised if he gets the Merc seat next year. I'd be betting on him taking Sargeant's seat.