Russian invasion of Ukraine

Beautiful.

@nick_h. A Russian political expert told me that Putin’s role is as the ultimate arbiter and final authority among Russia’s cleptocrats, plutocrats, oligarchs, para/military leaders, and state-tolerated mob leaders, all of whom lived through the bloody infighting of the 90s. Once he makes a decision, no debate is allowed, and it’s agreed and accepted that public complaint or disobedience will be answered overtly with incarceration, extreme violence or death.

He’s the single apex predator in an ecosystem full of predators, psychos and wanna-be supreme leaders. Every other major player who’s still alive, influential and free has adapted to survive and thrive abiding by his rules, and they have a vested interest in preserving the status quo, lest they lose it all in a reshuffle.

Prigozhin is the prime example. A billionaire with a veteran army at his back, poised to march on Moscow, and he chickened out. Opinions vary, but I suspect he realised Putin wouldn’t replace Shoigu with him despite Shoigu actively sabotaging Wagner in Ukraine, and when he realised he didn’t have the backing to challenge Shoigu or even Putin directly, he threw in the towel, possibly with assurances that Putin wouldn’t harm him. Then his plane fell out of the sky killing everyone onboard.