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Yeah, I think you're right. The likelihood of actually being bothered to take mudguards off and put them back on before and after a "fun" ride is pretty slim.
I don't actually have a gravel bike at the moment, just my fixed gear commuter, a road bike and a mountain bike. I'm talking about moving on the road bike to create a gravel/commuter combo but I think that's likely to be the worst of both worlds.
I think what I really want is a geared version of my fixed gear to commute and tart about town on. Then I could just use my mountain bike to try and keep up with my brother on his new Ti gravel thing.
Maybe I'll jump on the second wave Arkose band wagon at some point. I should probably just ride my road bike more and see if I actually still enjoy road riding or not before I make any decisions.
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Flat bar mk1 before it went groad bike. Tyres measure up around 38mm and felt there was enough clearance on the guards for loose surface crap. Mk2 will have GRX cranks with some sort of 11 speed hack. Only downside to the Arkose for me is the the lack of front rack mounts but might try a jack the rack.
IMO / experience, taking mudguards off and on for gravel or commuting is a fallacy. Unless you can have such big guards / clearance for mud / stones (or they detach super easy) that you don't need to remove them for gravel and slop rides.
Dedicated commuter and then a fun / fast gravel bike to replace the roadie and do bridleways seems like a good solution to me.
Edit: didn't read the post too well. But basically I'd suggest, keep full mudguards off the gravel bike (maybe use one of those new sturdy ass saver Win Wings) and make the commuter more commutery? Hub gear if the new commute has any major hills?