-
When Labour wins the coming election, it will be a broad and progressive coalition that brings it to power, one that is overwhelmingly youthful and urban.
I don't think this is true. This group also voted for Corbyn (some through gritted teeth) in 2019. Labour's victory rests on the fact a majority of older One Nation Conservative voters can't face voting for Sunak and the nasty party.
I don't think the Tories are going to magic up another Cameron or Johnson to appeal to either of these demographics, and will hopefully flounder between a couple of leaders - but Keir's biggest problem long term is that he doesn't have the personal appeal either.
Edit: If I wanted to put a long bet on, I'd say Labour would likely win a second term, but it'll be much closer and both parties will elect new leaders afterwards. Hey, at least we're not in the US.
JamesQGM-
I entirely agree that the it's that older demographic which are the critical swing voters this time around. Don't discount the power of demographic change though - the last five years have only grown the base which supported Corbyn, while eating away at the core Brexit-y one that swept Johnson's Tories into power. This dual effect (growing Labour's support and cutting the Conservative's) will bring about an enduring shift in the relative strength of each party's 'natural' support - unless the Tories pivot strongly.
Also, on electoral geography; the Tory's previous great advantage of a broad base of support smeared across most constituencies (vs. Labour's highly concentrated supermajority urban seats) will contribute to its potential collapse. With Reform splitting the rightwing vote, it won't take much for many Conservative seats to change hands. Using Electoral Calculus's predictor and the latest polling from You Gov, the Lib Dems could gain 46 seats - 95% previously Tory held. Thinking of the fall of the Tory party, it will be a divided right wing vote and a centre-right Lib Dem coup that would ultimately deliver the death blow - even ignoring Labour's polling.
I do agree that a lack of charisma hurts Keir and a 'mid-term' leadership change is on the cards. Perhaps Andy Burnham will have a tilt in 2029.
davidvdp_is_better
While this is true, I have been thinking about this a lot recently and I believe the circumstances which have set the Tories up for obliteration are quite unique to the election of 2019.
The electorate has not been keen on the Tories themselves throughout their 14 years. Since 2010 the only time the Conservatives have had a firm and independent grip on power was after the 2019 election when they won 365 seats. Prior to that, Tory PMs were playing wack-a-mole, fending off attacks from both their left and right flanks thanks to slim majorities which encouraged rebellion. The only issue which brought them electoral success was Brexit, which garned them their 330 seats in 2015 with Cameron's referendum promise and the current strong majority when Boris promised to 'get Brexit done'. By 2019 your opinion on Brexit defined who you would vote for above anything else, and with most voters sick of the endless spasms over the withdrawal agreement and Labour lacking any real stance, BoJo's pledge blew him to victory.
Once Brexit was finally done in 2021 and it had begun fading into the background, the Conservative's polling began fading with it. The party was floundering, no thanks to a hapless leader, as it now lacked a unifying mission. As voters were never that keen on central Tory policy to begin with, the increasingly rightwing rhetoric spewed from the front bench accelerated the alienation of younger (18-45) voters, who are either naturally reactionary to a government which has only taken away from them or who may remember Labour's time in power as the 'good old days'.
When Labour wins the coming election, it will be a broad and progressive coalition that brings it to power, one that is overwhelmingly youthful and urban. These voters are unlikely to forget the damage and divisiveness of the Conservative years, and unless the Tories make a hard tack back towards the centre to appeal to this growing pool of voters, their destiny is tied to their shrinking primary demographic - elderly voters. And unfortunately for the Tory party, it seems as though opposition will bring with it contortions over control- already begun - rather than clear direction; a tussel between the dominant right and a minority centre, similar to the chaotic Labour years 2015-2020.
All Labour have to do is appear sensible for five years, satisfy their franchise, and repeat "under the previous Conservative government...".