-
I believe he's doing this not just to win the next election but to do it with a landslide, which will in all probability secure him and 2nd Labour a second term in office. I take it as a sign of confidence.
A few times this thread has referenced a landslide election/obliterating the Tories as being a means of securing a second term (often as an defense of KS policies/lack of policies), but surely 2019 showed us you can win a landslide and throw it all away in one term?
A lot of discourse aimed at Labour in December 2019 was that 'it will take a generaiton to get back into power' and yet here we are.
JamesQGM-
While this is true, I have been thinking about this a lot recently and I believe the circumstances which have set the Tories up for obliteration are quite unique to the election of 2019.
The electorate has not been keen on the Tories themselves throughout their 14 years. Since 2010 the only time the Conservatives have had a firm and independent grip on power was after the 2019 election when they won 365 seats. Prior to that, Tory PMs were playing wack-a-mole, fending off attacks from both their left and right flanks thanks to slim majorities which encouraged rebellion. The only issue which brought them electoral success was Brexit, which garned them their 330 seats in 2015 with Cameron's referendum promise and the current strong majority when Boris promised to 'get Brexit done'. By 2019 your opinion on Brexit defined who you would vote for above anything else, and with most voters sick of the endless spasms over the withdrawal agreement and Labour lacking any real stance, BoJo's pledge blew him to victory.
Once Brexit was finally done in 2021 and it had begun fading into the background, the Conservative's polling began fading with it. The party was floundering, no thanks to a hapless leader, as it now lacked a unifying mission. As voters were never that keen on central Tory policy to begin with, the increasingly rightwing rhetoric spewed from the front bench accelerated the alienation of younger (18-45) voters, who are either naturally reactionary to a government which has only taken away from them or who may remember Labour's time in power as the 'good old days'.
When Labour wins the coming election, it will be a broad and progressive coalition that brings it to power, one that is overwhelmingly youthful and urban. These voters are unlikely to forget the damage and divisiveness of the Conservative years, and unless the Tories make a hard tack back towards the centre to appeal to this growing pool of voters, their destiny is tied to their shrinking primary demographic - elderly voters. And unfortunately for the Tory party, it seems as though opposition will bring with it contortions over control- already begun - rather than clear direction; a tussel between the dominant right and a minority centre, similar to the chaotic Labour years 2015-2020.
All Labour have to do is appear sensible for five years, satisfy their franchise, and repeat "under the previous Conservative government...".
-
I imagine that there being very little in the way of sensible moderates in the Tories these days would be magnified, having bad Enoch and suella as the big dogs at the next GE is likely less appealing than beige keir and co?
But yes, politics in the 2020s who fucking knows ..
-
Bojo won an overall majority of 80. 80 isn't a Landslide in my opinion, landslides start at 100. So Starmer isn't overturning a Landslide but a big majority.
Why have the tories managed to destory a very healthy majority in 4 years? I'd start with them having 3 PM who were in various ways completely unsuited to being PM. Starmer isn't special he's mearly competent and honest, but in comparisonto Bojo, truss & sunak they make him look like the son of god!
If Labour get the 100-150 majority which looks possible, they only have to be competent, honest and with a bit of political luck able to have a second term in '28/'29.
davidvdp_is_better
Grumpy_Git
DoubtfulAce
IMO, he's so confident of winning the next election he's simply moving on the tories ground; taking their ideas, BoJo's Leveling Up and making it his own. I think the Reeve's "Thatcher" speech is an example of this as well.
I believe he's doing this not just to win the next election but to do it with a landslide, which will in all probability secure him and 2nd Labour a second term in office. I take it as a sign of confidence.