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  • Assessing a decision on the outcome is biasing the assessment as a lot of poor decisions turn out well. It should be assessed on the information available at the time.

  • a lot of poor decisions turn out well

    Learn something every day - I always thought that a decision that turned out well was a good decision!

    I don't claim to know much about Microstrategy and I am only going on the info available to me, which is what is out there plus what was in that linked article, which I found interesting.

    I get the idea that some people think Saylor just punted on bitcoin on a whim. It's a public company so he will have had to think it through, develop a coherent strategy, model it and describe it, and get it past his board. You, or I, may not agree with it - and it might be different from what every other company (barring maybe Tesla) has done, but that provides no basis to say that it isn't thought through and that it isn't credible. And, if the goal by which you judge it is increasing the value of the company, it's hard to argue that - based on what we know now - it hasn't been very successful.

    Of course it may well fall apart tomorrow, but there are certainly plenty of reasons to believe that it might not. If you really think it is bullshit, you can always short it!

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