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Money would be on condensation due to temp differential and lack of air flow. If it was damp coming from the wall, it would have totally fucked skirting board from behind causing ripples in the paint, but what you seem to have is surface deterioration.
Clean up with wrag + vinegar, see what you are left with.
Ground floor bay window, north facing, gravel outside possibly too deep (gets pushed up over time due to car parking).
Found mould on the back of the sofa.
Is it rising damp? Or just damp damp?
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