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In short, slim to none. Depending on what the demand is like for the Explorer they might not let you even put your name down without previous purchase history, and I know some places have simply closed their lists entirely while they wait for production to increase (which it will do).
Having said that, the market has changed massively over the last year or so and you might get lucky - it has been known to happen. But you might want to try a smaller dealer as well. Somewhere like Bucherer will probably have more customers on the list for one than they know what to do with.
Rolex are building new factories. Availability will increase. Even second hand they're not that much above retail now. Just keep at it, if you can be bothered to play the game. If you're polite but persistent, and emphasise that that's the watch you really want, and you're not looking to sell it on, you probably have more of a chance.
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Regal
Looking to get a Rolex explorer 1 in 40mm. What are the chances of me going somewhere like Bucherer and getting one without being added to some list?