Russian invasion of Ukraine

Interesting - Orban grandstands for months and plays all manner of brinkmanship games, then seemingly caves without getting anything in return. Seems unlikely nothing has been horse-traded in his favour behind the scenes.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/01/eu-agrees-50bn-package-for-ukraine-as-viktor-orban-bows-to-pressure

Another Russian warship sunk. Amazing

Reading Swedish news it seems like eu threatened to hold back a shit ton of monies unless he backed down

https://www.ft.com/content/9dabcd4b-9c64-4124-9f9c-b0c898c84c8f

You cheered up my afternoon with this.

Obvs sucks for the loss of potentially ‘innocent’ life onboard but one warship less for Putin weighs heavy on the scales.

BBC has some footage - apparently ~£50m worth of boat

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av-embeds/68165523/vpid/p0h8k2t9

double post

20% of The Black Sea fleet has been destroyed by a country that has no navy.

Russian schoolbooks say that the 2020 US election was stolen from Trump. Meanwhile Trump's influence is preventing Ukraine from defending itself. Casualties have increased. The public are reluctant to serve. Loss of territory seems inevitable. https://www.ft.com/content/18c5296a-f0d5-47d5-aacd-af5210d638fc

The bigger question is, if or when Ukraine ans Russia reach an agreement that ends or freezes the conflict, how soon will the world welcome Putin back into the fold?

In an ideal world, the answer would be never. In this world, Russia’s economy and the resources Putin can grant access to are too alluring for some to let a thing like morality stand in the way.

Depends where he invades next.

My money’s on Transnistria then the rest of Moldova, while destabilising the Caucasus and Baltics internally to eventually align or integrate them. Not being flippant, it’s genuinely looking like his next move if he’s allowed to press forward.

His position is improving. Despite sanctions his missile and drone production is up and his economy has grown. Europe and the US don't have a strategy or leadership to beat him. Maybe they just don't have the willpower. If he grabs territory because of the current shell shortage, Ukraine might never get it back. Dissent within Ukraine is growing. Tough times.

Two other scenarios:
a) Some kind of hybrid war shenanigans in Latvia where Russia will argue that they are compelled to intervene on the side Latvia's Russian speaking minority.
b) Some kind of intervention in the narrow strip of Lithuania between Kaliningrad and Belarus. NATO will be forced to agree on whether they want to risk all out war over a bit of Lithuanian shrubbery. Again, it can be done with hybrid forces rather than an all out invation, and create just enough instability to serve Putin's longer term interests.

So Zelensky sacks Valery Zaluzhny and appoints Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky as the Commander-in-Chief, twitter does not appear happy and opinion seems to be the rank and file troops don't like him

These two tweets go together well as a pair given Syrsky role in Bakhmut
https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1755669784920781237?t=dBhrE4W1do7yy0HI64hkgg&s=19

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1755656714894835761?t=D_qFAiH9zlhLGyoQXHwNDw&s=19

Moscow's on fire:

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1755729816035471500

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/17­55729816035471500

Lately, when someone posts a Xitter link on here, it's about a 1 in 4 chance that I'll see anything.

There have been water cuts and power cuts lately.

Tucker interview with Putin is wild

https://twitter.com/DanaSlavinsk/status/1755919786834292998

I suggest watching 20 days in Mariupol to see the effect of Putins decisions instead.

Also

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I suggest watching 20 days in Mariupol to see the effect of Putins decisions instead.

Did you see the video of surviving residents of Mariupol begging Putin for help? They were assured their bombed out homes would be rebuilt. Instead new flats are being built on the cleared plots and then sold on the open market. Seriously, what did they expect?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1754223069902581914

This is super sad. Not sure I would blame casual citizens who just want to live in peace - russophilic or not. We can't assume they stayed in Mariupol because they were pro russian.

Somewhat similar stuff hapenned here in Lithuania when soviets came. They imposed new laws about "optimum square footage per person" and there are plenty of stories where, if you had a house, a house would be confiscated and divided into 4 flats.

If you were lucky enough you would get a flat and some new neighbours - if not - a ticket to gulag.

They did this all over the USSR; when I was born, my parents got given a 10sqm ’flat’ to live in, which was carved out of a large room once part of a confiscated townhouse. The 4m high ceiling meant they could at least build a mezzanine to sleep in.

The BBC Ukraine podcast had a brief discussion about the Tucker Carlsson interview.
Their interpretation was that when Putin talks about being willing to negotiate he's not talking about negotiations with the government in Kyiv, but about negotiations with Washington. Ideally ending with the US granting him control over Crimea. (As if it is theirs to give away).
Seems like he's dreaming about some kind of 21st century Yalta conference where only the big boys are allowed and he is finally recongnised as an historic figure.