-
Biden’s hands are going to become increasingly tied.
-
Not sure how this doesn't become a regional conflict, Israel appear ready to invade Lebanon to take on Hezbollah, militias in Iraq and Syria are attacking US bases daily, red sea blockade seems to be getting worse not better. US appears to have the choice of escalate or appear weak with the added pressure of the election campaign
-
Not sure how this doesn't become a regional conflict
I predicted to geopol risk colleagues back in October that it would devolve into pretty much this situation (although I did expect it to happen slightly quicker and with more fighting in Syria than we’ve seen). I’m disappointed that no one’s found a way out.
The US can’t and won’t turn its back on Israel unless something unfathomable happens (confirmed WMD or the like) because of domestic pressure in a US electoral year and the message it would send to other allies. Regional shit-stirrers like Iran can see that the US and NATO are in a bind with Ukraine, and will become increasingly emboldened to push their luck.
Even if their actions don’t seem to signal an intent to capitalise on it thus far, Biden’s team must be very aware that war-time incumbents gain a massive upper hand. Would they be willing to risk a deteriorating ME conflict if it meant greater odds of defeating trump?
-
Fwiw, open confrontation with/in Lebanon doesn’t seem like it would suit Israel at this time. Here’s an interesting article on that from a respected Palestinian scholar. https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/91321
-
The FT has published two handy guides to Iran's tactics and its proxies
-
Doesn't seem that bad. FT is normally a good source for more facts and less bullshit opinion like other publications (especially the Economist). Obviously at this stage though, I would take anything that the enemies of the enemy (not the journalist per se) have to say with salt bey levels of a pinch of salt.
-
Israel is making it difficult to defend their claim that they’re not breaking the Geneva Convention when they send commandos dressed as medics and Muslim women into a hospital to assassinate sleeping patients in their beds.
Shooting people in the head on their hospital bed certainly sends a message.
Adding- feigning civilian status to kill an enemy (especially feigning to be a medic) is considered perfidy, and is a war crime. A simple Israeli flag shoulder patch slapped on before the tactical action (i.e., use of force) begins is/can be enough to remove the element of perfidy (imo), and transforms the perfidious killing into a lawful assassination. It isn’t clear whether or not the Israelis bothered.
-
commandos into a hospital dressed as medics and Muslim women to assassinate sleeping patients in their bed.
This is perfect news for the Hamas chiefs. Israeli atrocities in the West Bank are exactly the reaction they wanted. Maximum outrage, with international support for Israel being reduced every day. More players are being drawn into the war.
But I don't see how this can end well for Hamas. Can anyone see a possible chain reaction which threatens the existence of Israel? Aren't we going to end up with Palestinian deaths in six figures but with Israel intact?
-
Hamas leaders are religious
fanatics, and at least one of them has said he thinks he’ll be killed and that he’s lived too long. They might not need further justification beyond their belief that it’s their gods will.Reuters has now picked up the hospital story. No insignia immediately apparent, but it is how Israel’s assassination squads have operated (all over the world) for decades now.
-
Insert 'Israeli' into the first sentence for a perfect mirror image of fundamentalist insanity.
-
Some politicians are saying the current danger is somehow comparable to 1973. Eh? It's not like Egypt or Syria or any other Arab nations might invade. I don't see how Israelis have anything to fear apart from small attacks by Hamas, Hezbollah and a couple of other militias. They have missiles but Israel has Iron Dome. Nobody's going to come at them with tanks and paratroops.
-
Biden says he’s chosen a plan to respond to drone attack against Tower 22 garrison.
Likely to be layered attacks, primarily on Hezbollah targets. Possibly a few missile strikes against their assets in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan. Probably a strike outside Iran on IRGC officer(s) linked to overseas ops. The White House has indicated that they don’t want war with Iran so they probably won’t overtly target assets inside Iran (a few folks might have car “accidents” soon though), and I’d wager they also won’t bash the Iranians too badly inside Iran (e.g., annihilate their new drone carrier ship, or drop a missile on another IRGC commander but on Iranian soil).
It’s a certainty that a lot of shit’s going to fly though. Biden needs to send a clear message to US voters, republicans, trump, Iran, Putin, Xi, Kim, MBS, and US allies that he isn’t to be fucked with.
-
Fucking hell, that's a lot.
-
Wikipedia says
Both Israel and Palestine claim Jerusalem as their capital; Israel maintains its primary governmental institutions there, and the State of Palestine ultimately foresees it as its seat of power. Neither claim, however, is widely recognized internationally
-
40 reported killed in US attacks in Iraq and Syria. Unclear if they were all combatants. 🤷♂️
Strikes featured use of B-1 long range bombers deployed from mainland USA. A real ‘reach out and touch (you)’ message to everyone who missed them on their radar.
Seems Biden and team have decided that striking proxies is enough this time. Time will tell if Iran got the message, but their reactions definitely conveyed a sense of wariness that their trainees had gotten them into a fight they didn’t want. All of this seems like a positive thing as even the NYT had a piece calling for direct strikes on Iranian assets inside Iran, a la the 1980s when the US sank 6 Iranian warships; such an action now probably would’ve pushed Iranian leaders into striking back directly, and who knows where it goes from there.
William.
Leshaches
greentricky
nick_h.
lynx
infmz
Colin_the_Bald
snottyotter
Thuekr-
Post a reply
About
Israel / Palestine
Posted by
@skydancer
I'm not sure bringing up this at every opportunity is particularly helpful. There's certainly a case that Israel weaponises Antisemitism, but blithely twatting it about does more harm than good.