-
Not sure how this doesn't become a regional conflict
I predicted to geopol risk colleagues back in October that it would devolve into pretty much this situation (although I did expect it to happen slightly quicker and with more fighting in Syria than we’ve seen). I’m disappointed that no one’s found a way out.
The US can’t and won’t turn its back on Israel unless something unfathomable happens (confirmed WMD or the like) because of domestic pressure in a US electoral year and the message it would send to other allies. Regional shit-stirrers like Iran can see that the US and NATO are in a bind with Ukraine, and will become increasingly emboldened to push their luck.
Even if their actions don’t seem to signal an intent to capitalise on it thus far, Biden’s team must be very aware that war-time incumbents gain a massive upper hand. Would they be willing to risk a deteriorating ME conflict if it meant greater odds of defeating trump?
You are reading a single comment by @Leshaches and its replies.
Click here to read the full conversation.
Leshaches
Not sure how this doesn't become a regional conflict, Israel appear ready to invade Lebanon to take on Hezbollah, militias in Iraq and Syria are attacking US bases daily, red sea blockade seems to be getting worse not better. US appears to have the choice of escalate or appear weak with the added pressure of the election campaign