Russian invasion of Ukraine

Not sure it was here or somewhere else I read it, but apparently the Russian tactic is pretty much Russian soldiers vs Ukrainian ammo. They’re banking on Ukraine running out before them

It was also someone in this thread who explained that for a Russian general to hesitate to throw all of his men an kit at a problem is seen as cowardice, even if you know they'll be wasted. You can always get new men, but you can't get your repuation back.

Every time I see some vatnik idiot claims UA is running out of ammo and men I donate some money for ukrainians to get some more suicide drones. I think it is the best bang for my buck.

https://shape.nato.int/news-archive/2024/natos-largest-exercise-in-decades--steadfast-defender-2024--set-to-get-underway

90,000 troops from 31 NATO allies + Sweden, on an exercise lasting months.

A bit delayed, but NATO is finally taking its watch off, just in case.

Lol. https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-set-approve-swedens-nato-membership-bid-after-long-delay-2024-01-23/

Insane.

It begs the obvious question - how much do russians have left and for how long can they keep going like this.

There was an estimation somewhere that russia had about 10000 tanks at the beginning of the invasion. Out of all tanks roughly 70% are operational. As of today Ukraine claims to have destroyed 6227.

Nonetheless, it looks like they place their bets on the support for Ukraine stalling so they can drive through it with whatever they have left.

And the thought of the latter is particularly scary as, according to some, the Baltics would be next.

They'll be rolling out the T-34s soon

This is the perfect time for Georgia to recapture South Ossetia, Moldova, Transnistria etc

Western media sources are widely parroting the lastest Russian propaganda that Ukraine downed an IL-76 transport plane carrying Ukrainian POWs. Never mind the fact POWs are always transported by bus. It happened on the same day a prisoner exchange was to take place which means it must be true (Russians never lie).

It's comforting to believe Ukraine's propaganda about Russian tanks, but it's not been verified. I wouldn't take too much notice unless the story is repeated by credible intelligence professionals or by discriminating journalists such as C4 News. I certainly wouldn't trust the youtuber linked to by fly on the previous page. The guy is a self-taught amateur with no training or experience, except for a self-published story about dinosaurs.

This is only to be expected, simply look at RAF/Luftwaffe claims as opposed to what was documented as returning to base as a historic precedent.

Where do I find the dinosaur story?

You can look at the pictures and count them yourself

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

Rep

Where do I find the dinosaur story?

Here you go, the link is beneath the video https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CLL19CLP

Coincidentally, a Kyiv resident has written a fascinating/heartbreaking piece for the New Statesman about morale, propaganda and conscription. https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2024/01/volodymyr-zelensky-war-effort?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1706106538-1

Yeah that Suchomimus guy I linked to is pretty non-partizan. He only shows stuff that is corroborated by video or photographic evidence from Oryx or War Spotting.

He obviously spins it by sharing far more Russian losses than Ukrainian, but does seem to draw reasonable conclusions from what he sees and doesnt wander into conjecture.

With all the posturing by Kim and Co, I wonder what might be the odds that Best Korea does something truly stupid and attacks South Korea or Japan this year?

Of course China would never allow it, and NK likely knows they’d have no chance at acquiring territory or future concessions if they attack, but one miscalculation or accident could start something that no one can stop. And if Putin was deceived into thinking his army would waltz right over Ukraine’s, I don’t doubt Kim could be making decisions based on stacks of lies from terrified underlings.

Thus far I suspect NK’s moves and talk of imminent fighting are all about invigorating domestic production of weaponry to sell to Russia, tying down US and allied capabilities that might be redeployed to help Ukraine, and potentially pushing for concessions soon or when/if Kim’s bff trump is re-elected. Kim and Putin appear to have an arms-for-tech trade going, and neither would benefit from SK and the US demolishing NK’s production capabilities, while potentially having everything to gain in a year’s time.

An invasion of South Korea would fall right in line with how this decade is going, though.

Eh? Don't you realise that all the videos and photos are provided by the Ukraine military? Oryx and War Spotting just pass it around. There's no corroboration at all. Everything that you think is non-partisan is actually part of a managed propaganda operation. Ukraine's losses are a state secret.

Of course the videos come from the Ukrainian military, but they are still videos. Are you suggesting that because the videos are shared by the Ukrainian military and that youtuber that they are somehow falsified?

Is the ukrainian military painting Zs on their own vehicles, driving them to the russian lines, turning them round and then driving them back while they crash drones into them to convince me that they are destroying more russians than they are?

Ukraine's losses are a state secret.

I didnt comment on the relative losses of Ukraine, I just said that that particular guy shared more russian than ukrainian.

I read a twitter thread yesterday saying it's more likely we will see the North attack the South but it will be a distraction to create space for China to retake Taiwan

see the North attack the South

Best Korea is a cheeky nickname for North, so kinda what they were saying.

I'm not sure retake is the right term, as China has never really governed Taiwan.

What I'm saying is that a random youtuber has no idea how to interpret the evidence. Maybe some of it is falsified? Ukraine's very survival depends on them showing the public around the world how they can win with donated weapons. It's the strongest possible motive for telling some white lies.

In the RAF, photographic interpreters are all officers with specialist training. The idea that some guy with nothing but a dinosaur novel to his name can become a respected intelligence analyst with thousands of followers....sorry, but it's farcical. He implies that it's now become his main occupation, so good on him for creating a job for himself.

Professional analysts are studying the same evidence, but their reports are classified. If they did publish them there'd be masses of detail which isn't apparent to the layman, e.g. different tank variants, their armaments, guidance systems, armour and so on.

Oryx lists everything by type and subtype if you want to know the armament just google it.

"Skirmishes" up and down the front line seem to be Russia delivering infantry and vehicles to within artillery range. Meat waves:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1aciv7r/100th_tdf_brigade_shares_a_footage_of_a_failed/

Seen a few now. Russian vehicles pull up, soldiers climb out, they get blown up then the vehicle explodes.