-
Need to fact check this, but I believe this poll was commissioned by a headbanger adjacent group and paid for by Frost.
It handily suggests a move to the right to counter reform.
This episode of the Bunker on Reform et al, is quite interesting. A key takeaway for me is that there is misunderstanding of the extent to which Reform voters are potential Tory voters. Also the intersection between Reform and Lib Dem voters.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/0czjXQ0w4PFqQfRQdvsFFW?
1 Attachment
-
hugo7
-
Looks like it was a headbanger group who commissioned it from YouGov and the Telegraph put their spin on it (which YouGov weren't too keen on):
Notes on the Daily Telegraph’s analysis
The Daily Telegraph wrote that “In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labour vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019”. This is somewhat of a red herring. There is a sum using certain notional results whereby the estimated Labour share looks like a mean of a four point rise on their 2019 performance. However, this is not the correct way to look at either implied national changes nor what is happening at the constituency level.If we aggregate up all our constituency level figures and then weight them according to likely voter population, the headline vote intention figures come out at the following:
Labour 39.5%, Conservatives 26%, Lib Dems 12.5%, Reform 9%, Greens 7.5%, SNP 3%, Plaid 0.5%, Others 2%.
A separate note by the Daily Telegraph suggested that the presence of Reform UK is the difference between Labour securing a majority and not. This is their own calculation using our data, and appears to be based simply on adding the Conservative and Reform UK vote shares together in each constituency, which is not a reliable way of measuring their impact.
Were Reform UK not to contest the election, it is extremely unlikely that all, or even a majority, of their voters would transfer to the Conservatives. Some would go to UKIP and splinter parties, some to Labour and other established parties, and some would simply stay at home – YouGov polling in October found only 31% of Reform UK voters would be willing to vote Conservative if Reform UK were not standing in their constituency.
Finally, the Daily Telegraph also said that the YouGov MRP model does not account for tactical voting in its estimated shares. This is not the case – our model does provision for tactical voting in its design, including by estimating constituency competition effects as part of the model equation. It does not, however, apply any post-hoc readjustments to vote share estimates based on any assumed model of tactical voting beyond what we already have in the data.
aggi
"Better", shurely?!