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Baroness Mone attempting to pivot badly from her husbands dubious tax affairs
https://twitter.com/DanNeidle/status/1746568120733503945?t=Pz10xx92csjDjCLjt6ilNQ&s=19 -
They might win?
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Need to fact check this, but I believe this poll was commissioned by a headbanger adjacent group and paid for by Frost.
It handily suggests a move to the right to counter reform.
This episode of the Bunker on Reform et al, is quite interesting. A key takeaway for me is that there is misunderstanding of the extent to which Reform voters are potential Tory voters. Also the intersection between Reform and Lib Dem voters.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/0czjXQ0w4PFqQfRQdvsFFW?
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Looks like it was a headbanger group who commissioned it from YouGov and the Telegraph put their spin on it (which YouGov weren't too keen on):
Notes on the Daily Telegraph’s analysis
The Daily Telegraph wrote that “In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labour vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019”. This is somewhat of a red herring. There is a sum using certain notional results whereby the estimated Labour share looks like a mean of a four point rise on their 2019 performance. However, this is not the correct way to look at either implied national changes nor what is happening at the constituency level.If we aggregate up all our constituency level figures and then weight them according to likely voter population, the headline vote intention figures come out at the following:
Labour 39.5%, Conservatives 26%, Lib Dems 12.5%, Reform 9%, Greens 7.5%, SNP 3%, Plaid 0.5%, Others 2%.
A separate note by the Daily Telegraph suggested that the presence of Reform UK is the difference between Labour securing a majority and not. This is their own calculation using our data, and appears to be based simply on adding the Conservative and Reform UK vote shares together in each constituency, which is not a reliable way of measuring their impact.
Were Reform UK not to contest the election, it is extremely unlikely that all, or even a majority, of their voters would transfer to the Conservatives. Some would go to UKIP and splinter parties, some to Labour and other established parties, and some would simply stay at home – YouGov polling in October found only 31% of Reform UK voters would be willing to vote Conservative if Reform UK were not standing in their constituency.
Finally, the Daily Telegraph also said that the YouGov MRP model does not account for tactical voting in its estimated shares. This is not the case – our model does provision for tactical voting in its design, including by estimating constituency competition effects as part of the model equation. It does not, however, apply any post-hoc readjustments to vote share estimates based on any assumed model of tactical voting beyond what we already have in the data.
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A long winded way of saying 'the Torygraph morons are misusing our data to justify their biased view'.
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Maybe they'll keep pushing in the hopes of an election knowing that "I'm great and my constituents love me. It's the other bastards with no idea"
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From BBC blog...
"Who are the various Tory factions who are opposing the bill?"
European Research Group
New Conservatives
Common Sense Group
Northern Research Group
Conservative Growth GroupAnd the 'One Nation caucus' don't want any changes.
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About
The fall of the Tory party
Posted by
@skydancer
Well, almost, the story was specifically released at this time as a cover for the real story they want to hide:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/government-wine-spirits-covid-foreign-office-b2477216.html
The Government had been delaying releasing the details of booze usage through Covid as it would show the Government in a very bad light given the restrictions in place during that time. They said they're release the info on about 4 different occasions but kept on putting it off.