Russian invasion of Ukraine

I don’t really have words for the current situation. Why has the west stopped delivering weapons and systems to Ukraine?
I thought the tanks would just be the beginning and hundreds of tanks would follow. Same for F-16, but after the initial donation, nothing. Same for m113, Bradley etc.

All I want for Christmas is 300 abrams, 500 Bradley’s, 1000 m113, 1000 humvees, a million shells and 200 scalp missiles for Ukraine. Ammo can be my sock filler

Knee jerk armchair analysis would be that the counter offensive went very poorly. Coupled with what's going on in the middle east and China flexing its muscles the global stage is looking a bit hairy at the moment.

I thought the tanks would just be the beginning and hundreds of tanks would follow. Same for F-16, but after the initial donation, nothing. Same for m113, Bradley etc.

You over-estimate (by far) the US and Western manufacturing capability.

For decades the US has sought the best weapons, not the cheapest or quickest to manufacture... there's multiple articles dating back since the start of the invasion that detail this , i.e. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/03/08/us-weapons-manufacturing-ukraine/

The reality is that most of what has been sent is old stock, and there was a fair amount of that... but at some point the old is gone, and countries aren't giving up their new/recent stock.

Things like the US aid to Ukraine predominantly stays in the US as spend on manufacturing new, which allows old stock to then be sent to Ukraine... but manufacturing new is far slower than you can imagine.

And now with the Israeli-led genocide underway and threatening to destabilise the entire Middle-East, many of the countries that were looked to for donations are being very cautious about what they commit.

This running dry of reserves whilst new situations develop leads to fewer commitments for hardware and ammo.

Adding to above:
Take Germany and leopard 2 tanks. There were something like 260 end of 2020.
Of those, around a hundred were operational. Right now the number of 64 is out there, as we gave some to Ukraine. Looks about the same with all the other stuff.

I don't really know about the other EU/NATO countries, but we did (and probably still do) an incredibly bad job with our armed forces, and just don't have anything to give, probably not even blankets.

Germany has had to tread a murky line beyond which the Sun et al start with the hysterics, so they can be forgiven for not keeping an expeditionary force at the ready.

Part of the reason NATO wanted Finland is because they have the largest artillery in Europe, and have spent decades studying how to defeat the Russian army in similar environments to Ukraine. Why they haven’t been asked to dole out more, is a good question, with a likely political answer.

Also, the 2nd Russian invasion of Ukraine showed the world that large-scale war is different to what was expected: endless streams of small drones in the air and on water, battlefield panopticon available at the squad level, constant itinerant rocket attacks on cities, massed artillery and trench warfare making a return. If NATO joins the fray outright then who knows what new ideas will emerge, so no one wants to get rid of potentially useful stuff that they aren’t sure they can readily replace.

France, which has participated in military conflicts in Africa for years and also keeps military presence around the world, has the second most experienced army in Europe but it isn’t equipped for the type of fighting seen in Ukraine.

Yeah I know that this is the narrative that is being pushed (especially) by the Washington post.
I am fully aware of the strategy applied, where we send them our old stuff in exchange for new stock for us, and also the time it takes to ramp up production.
However, there very large stocks sitting in the US desert. The marines for example turned in 400 abrams that didn’t have the upgraded armor and could be sent immediately.
There are also hundreds of m113 that are written off and are being scrapped because it was cheaper than to store. But they would cost next to nothing to send.

There’s the logistics and fuel blah blah but we could have been training soldiers for more than a year by now.

Well, this sounds like an argument you need to be making predominantly to the US Republicans who oppose the help nearly every step of the way in both Congress and the Senate.

Didn't the speaker just say he would only approve more Ukraine aid if they also agree to build Trump's wall?

I feel very sad for Ukraine now that it seems that the war is in a stale mate and they are likely to lose territory. If we allow that it is just a matter of time before Ruzzia will try to do it to somebody else. UN is basically useless and Biden will not make it to another term so we really can't count on world police to help.

In honesty, when has a sort of “world police” ever done much other than growing the conflict or create permanent stalemate? Korea is still at war officially but is perhaps the most stable intervention. Kosovo still on a slow burn. Iraq? Afghanistan? The many Central African interventions (CAR, DRC etc).

Not saying it’s not a noble goal but…

Yeah, it's never worked... didn't work with the League of Nations prior either.

Still haven’t had WW3, so it hasn’t failed completely.

Heard on the radio that this war is entering its second winter.

You needed the radio to tell you that?

Yes, I did. As I thought that the invasion of another country would be over in less time.

But then I am quite naive. Have other stuff important to me and my life that this is in the background. Sorry.

Ammo shortages continue to effect Ukraine
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b37f7ccd-a6c8-4b4b-a9e4-c36c12d4d534?shareToken=1980f9d4b996f973d0f21bd2e137f1bc

The IOC is doing what it was paid for and can go eat a bag of dicks.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/dec/08/athletes-who-have-not-supported-ukraine-war-to-compete-at-paris-2024

Maybe it wasn't such a great idea to buy ammunition from North Korea? No proof the exploding ammo that destroyed this tank came from NK but their ammo is becoming infamous for exploding in the wrong place at the wrong time.

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Wow what an image. Unrecognisable except for the tracks. Poor schmucks, at least it was instantaneous.

It's a BM 21 multiple rocket launcher I believe.

“Best” Korea has been raising the volume of their harping on about urgently preparing war with the US. Looks like they’ve played their cards well: they’re in a good position to supply Russia with materiel, with China’s indirect protection, and receive injections of military tech and oil in return. They are also probably content to be paid in Chinese Renminbi given that China is their biggest everything, contrary to India who have flat out refused to be paid in rubles or renminbi.

Seems the conflict is stuck in a stalemate.

Russia’s WW1-style winter effort at digging in artillery and mining nearly the whole line of contact have paid off, and Ukraine is now forced to focus on digging in. Meanwhile, Russia seems to be acquiring new materiel from NK, and conscription is ongoing while life in Moscow continues unaffected.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive attempts have cost a lot of valuable resources, but have not been successful. They have given western observers tons of info about how a near-peer could attack/defend against NATO. Completely expected key learning is the critical value of air superiority. Also important is that MANPADs and a wide assortment of drones have proven their worth.

Law-fare and economic measures have made an impact but not as drastic as was expected. The jury is out for whether cutting Russia out of SWIFT will prove to have been a timely or premature idea: it’s prevented Russia from acquiring dollars to purchase commodities overseas (eg, India doesn’t want rupees), but it’s also reduced domestic capital flight that could have had a destabilising effect on the regime.

Kyrylo Budanov: the Ukrainian military spy chief who ‘likes the darkness’
https://www.ft.com/content/98c005cd-7def-44b5-a938-5243c77520a9

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgTDUtZ0mYQ

30 Russian vehicles destroyed in one field. On their side of the front line. To try the same thing over again and expect different results is the definition of insanity. 108 year old non-tactics.

If they're Russian tactics then the different results are expected when the enemy runs out of things to kill the next attempt with, which may well somehow still be valid, in as horrific way as it was in the past.