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So Labour might be keeping quiet for now, and that's a totally valid argument for the next election given the polling data. But if they don't meaningfully change after the election, continuing to abandon these people's basic needs, it's going to be one hell of a ride in the next decade.
(Even looking at some of the polls there are more 'Don't knows' than Conservative votes, although I don't know if that's a normal figure)
have been holding the line for some time that labour is really pushing for a low election turnout, or at least, not one where it might rally a suprise demographic swing/turnout. their messaging is consistently targeted at the stable voter but, maybe more importantly, they've dropped any pretence of usual nice fluff on the social liberalism which is usually more to get people out if it's raining.
i would say a lot of the PLP in power atm felt quite validated in their belief that transformative policy wins votes, not seats, after the 2017/2019 election, that building a "new electoral map" is not something that delivers them victory and holds them with policies and a mandate base they do not feel comfortable around. that any increase in voters for them will be matched by an increase for those on the other side. instead they're targetting red wall, swings and non disenfranchised/ amply represented groups allows them to double down on the disillusionment of conservative/ """economy"""/ sensible/ loose women liberal voters, wining the eye catching swing of seats and material power.
smart politics one could argue, it's looking like the tories will be put in a hard reset, great to see. it does make them beholden to those voters however; to their parties jobs, who, as we bemoan, are not scared of self immolation. i err on the side of what we see is what we get when it comes to their social and economic offerings. which may be good for many currently, especially those in lucrative private sectors that one might use david graebers words to describe. however, it's hard not to see that the platform continues to not adress underlying issues for many more marginalised, public sector or care work focused roles. i would also argue that the platform will also struggle to undo any of the decline of standard of living for many by keeping a lot of the structures causing it (wealth extraction, wealth disparity, vulture capitalism, skepticism of industrial spending and development as infrastructure fails, hesitancy for strateigic government planning for an aging population and the shrinking of asset accessibility to many under 40's) if they stick to their "fiscal rules".
these latter issues, much like you suggest, create a breeding ground for a legitimisation of far right parties to swoop in on populist mandates, or shift the social and economic overton window of more liberal ones. much as we've been living in the fall out from for the last 15 years, much as we see here with labour on imigration and economic policy in 2007, and present day. hard to overlook these factors unless you're ideologically attached to the starmer project past getting the tories out.
Maj-
Lots to like in this post, thanks Maj
Also, aside from Thatcher-chat, here's his recent speech which is actually pretty good, despite a sometimes narrow focus when describing how we get out of this mess: https://labourlist.org/2023/12/keir-starmer-full-economy-speech-resolution-foundation-today-policy-spending-public-services/
slippers
@Big_Ted
Totally agree!
Populism is an interesting one for me. I don't really like the term as a pejorative, since it could well just be a core part of the correctional nature of democracies. If we've got a democratic deficit (which I think we do, both locally, nationally, at work, etc.), then it's the biggest signal you can get as a politician for widespread economic hardship.
There are obviously the total loons you're referring to who are willing to blame immigration for everything, but they're abusing a position handed to them on a plate from the centre ground going back decades. All parties need popular support regardless of their programme, so they can either play whack-a-mole with Farage and friends, pretending their arguments are invalid or too stupid, creating a vacuum, or engage with the problems underlying the division and deal with them earnestly.
This Guardian article on the Netherlands election is pretty telling: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/01/younger-voters-far-right-europe
These are really scary messages from people we'd expect to be voting for progressive parties. Showing either outright anti-immigration sentiments or the ability to ignore it because their world is fucked.
So Labour might be keeping quiet for now, and that's a totally valid argument for the next election given the polling data. But if they don't meaningfully change after the election, continuing to abandon these people's basic needs, it's going to be one hell of a ride in the next decade.
(Even looking at some of the polls there are more 'Don't knows' than Conservative votes, although I don't know if that's a normal figure)
Edit: And to clarify, I'm still (somewhat reluctantly) pro-Starmer. Lesser of two evils and all that.