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If it's anything a bit niche I worry that it will never come out in paperback, so sometimes I buy it hardback but I'd rather not. I also think most people who buy a lot of books don't like hardback - so are first print hardback sales even a helpful predictor of sales? (I assumed that was part of their role but maybe entirely wrong on that.)
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Usually I think they are, yes, but I've found that even people who do buy hardbacks buy them reluctantly, just like you've assumed.
Unfortunately I just think it's a money thing. If publishers can get people to buy a £20+ hardback over a -£10 paperback, then they're going to do that and squeeze as much out of people as they can, I guess.Having said that - one of our most successful and steadiest selling book series are the Penguin clothbound classics, which you can pick up paperback copies of for peanuts but people can't get enough of the fancy ones - and to be fair they do look amazing on a shelf. So people will buy hardbacks gladly - if they're getting something good for their money.
In case no-one reads the books thread - I own a bookshop, so I get a lot of this. People expect the option to buy a paperback at the same time as the HB is released. And depending on how successful/mainstream the author is, it can sometimes be up to a year between the two pub dates.
HBs aren't getting any cheaper either - cheapest you're likely to find now is about £15rrp, all the way up to around £30 for the likes of Britney/Prince Harry etc.
We don't sell any of that sort of shit though (and not least because you can usually get it half price in Tesco on the day of release anyway. Fuck them too).
Anyway, in conclusion - fuck hardbacks, mostly. Too expensive, hardly anyone wants them, and they're a pain in the arse to read.