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Israel doesn't know whether using more force on Palestine will prevent attacks from Hamas or provoke them
History tells us the answer to this. Extremism thrives off violence. Hamas is arguably only extant due to discontent with previous overuse of force by Israel, and the perceived subsequent lack of action by Fatah.
Elsewhere it is evident that increased strength of resistance has been shown in face of increasing violence.
Afghanistan (Britain)
Vietnam (France, then Japan, then France, then America)
Afghanistan (USSR)
Iraq (Britain and America)
Afghanistan (Americans and British)Hamas don't know what the reaction will be to an attack - they can guess it will provoke a violent reaction, but how far, and what will the international reaction be?
They absolutely did know, and they knew the extent. They knew that Israel would retaliate, as it always has done and has made Policy, with an Iron Fist, and this would lead to substantial, unavoidable, civilian casualties of Palestinians.
This makes the already abhorrent action taken by Hamas even more abhorrent.
As to the international reaction- they don't care. They're zealots.Violence doesn't work. One of the Intifadas had a set focus of following India and Gandhi's noncooperative nonviolent, though was inevitably co-opted by other elements.
Success was made on an international stage as well as within Israel, just as with India, and this has been lost to history in favour of bloody-minded violent means.
Aldosterone-
Israel doesn't know whether using more force on Palestine will prevent attacks from Hamas or provoke them
History tells us the answer to this. Extremism thrives off violence.
Exactly. And violence begets violence. Escalation of violence, which is happening and sadly, will continue till many more people die. It's unfathomable the dark period the peoples of Palestine and Israel are entering.
Also the Americans who have restrained Israelis in previous flare ups, sound ready to step back and let the the IDF attack with no limit
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They absolutely did know, and they knew the extent
They can guess there will be a reaction by Israel, but can they guess how the international community will react to that, both in the West and the Middle East? Which other countries might get caught up in the reaction or otherwise become involved?
Equally, I don't think this is straightforward:
Extremism thrives off violence. Hamas is arguably only extant due to discontent with previous overuse of force by Israel
2 reasons - 1. Now we are where we are, Israel ceasing to use any force doesn't remove the threat - people have long memories, and Israel doesn't know (given all the history) whether it leaves itself exposed or promotes peace if it ceases to try and stop Hamas. Look at it from their point of view - the period after Oslo seems to have been pretty violent against them.
- There have been people who opposed the state of Israel and haven't accepted its legitimacy from the start
- There have been people who opposed the state of Israel and haven't accepted its legitimacy from the start
skydancer
andyfallsoff
I guess I just think the examples you give are terrible! Can you really say that Israelis or Palestinians know the impact of their policy? Israel doesn't know whether using more force on Palestine will prevent attacks from Hamas or provoke them; similarly it doesn't know if giving more freedom would lead to peaceful coexistence or mean they are more susceptible to attacks from some of those who don't think the Israeli state should exist.
Hamas don't know what the reaction will be to an attack - they can guess it will provoke a violent reaction, but how far, and what will the international reaction be?
The idea this is complicated but somehow all utterly predictable and capable of being modelled as it has direct consequences just seems wrong