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It doesn't have to recoup much to be net positive though, does it?
Not sure. You can imagine a situation where suppliers will be less likely to go for government contracts if it turns out the next government will just come after you if it smells something funny.
i.e. a government attacking its citizens and businesses has a cost all of its own.
It doesn't have to recoup much to be net positive though, does it? It doesn't sound like it should be stupidly expensive to establish but if the loss is £7bn it only has to slightly improve recovery to be worthwhile.