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What’s the pointing like on the exterior wall? We once had a damp patch on our Victorian end terrace halfway up the first floor level, that was eventually traced to a badly repointed section. It looked ok, but it was hard cement between soft bricks over lime mortar and the rain was running behind it until it got to a bit that was ok and just hung around there and eventually found its way inside.
wall tie sounds very plausible to me. I also have a bee in the bonnet about mixing plaster technologies+ the covering in lining paper shortening the life span. It looks so localised with no obvious failure,, have you been into (investigated) to the loft space?