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This.. but the general consternation seems to be more about the difference between Pog and Vin given how closely matched they've been.
I'd argue that we saw the separation earlier in the race when Vin is on a good day and Pog on a bad one. It seems like their median performance is probably similar (V edging it) but there is more variance in Pog's?
I'm slightly surprised that people are surprised; the two strongest riders in the race, who've been head and shoulders above everyone else, are head and shoulders above everyone in the time trial.