Owning your own home

As much as Covid hasn't exactly helped this is the end of a cycle, this has been bedded in long before covid and this is happening over much of the developed world. This is a copy and paste but a good summary of what is happening. It was written about 4 or 5 years ago -

The great deflation cycle that started around 35 years ago is about to end with a deflationary collapse.During those 35 years interest rates have fallen to lower lows and made investing in equity/property very easy (they have always gone to higher highs).However that has also caused people to go way way along the risk curve for yield.The leverage on the system is beyond extreme.The Fed (and other central banks) missed out an entire tightening cycle,and in doing so have already made sure the recession dead ahead will see massive un-voluntary debt liquidation,a financial system in free fall and wealth destruction on a scale few can even imagine.Leverage is going to destroy business and individuals on a scale not seen since the late 1920s.Once this does hit the central banks will be slow to react with the right response as they themselves will be shocked at the speed and scale.They will panic and print direct into the economy by passing money/debt to governments at 0.1% or zero coupons.This is what will kick in the first reflation cycle since the 70s.Inflation will appear,rising slowly at first but increasing for perhaps a decade until it reaches double figures.Interest rates will follow,but being behind the curve perhaps through the whole cycle.The leveraged who survived the deflationary collapse will then suffer increasing interest rates for a decade.

PARKLIFE!

Inflation will appear,rising slowly at first but ...

this obviously doesn't apply. I'm not criticising the author for failing to predict the effect of COVID-19, the stimulus packages it triggered, or the war in Ukraine or anything else, but ... inflation is not "rising slowly" and I don't know why you'd keep reading past that point. The prediction has visibly parted company with reality.

Once this does hit the central banks will be slow to react with the right response as they themselves will be shocked at the speed and scale.They will panic and print direct into the economy by passing money/debt to governments at 0.1% or zero coupons.

M2 spiked at the start of 2020 and again last September.
M4 growth was high during 2020 until mid 2021, but has fallen back.

It's far from obvious they're pumping lots of money into the economy. That could almost have applied to the quantitative easing, but that was already happening 4 or 5 years ago and is being unwound.

QE started 15yrs ago now.

But yeah I'd agree with the rest of your points.

It's sort of like one of those maths conspiracy theories which rely on you not knowing/missing that the stated tail number of one of the 911 planes is incorrect.

Also given how long we've had asset inflation, how much would it have to fall by to cause real loss to those who hold the bulk of it?

What are the circumstances where that happens?

Not saying it's impossible, but curios as to how it actually plays out.

5 year fixed rate ends next April and I'll be 64. Sod it, I'll take my pension lump sum, put it towards paying off the mortgage and call it a day.......

At least we got all that money for the NHS plus our country back! Amirite?

Yeah sadly it passed by me too, but we'll have to pay for it which is a fuck up.

Yes plus Thames water are doing a stellar job managing a monopoly and are going to redistribute the savings to all of us 😂

It’s all worked out quite nicely!

It would be a great epitaph, I might borrow it if you don’t mind. Just need to find a nice “timeless” font

There's that and after a quick scan not understanding anything... is "un-voluntary" a word?

Also, anything that mentions "The Fed" I'm immediately calling a red card on. Sorry, I don't know anything about football either.

If property prices fell to the level I actually think is reasonable in principle (ie, same multiple of median income as when my house was built in the early 1900s, adjusted for cost of funding and whatever else) - everyone would be wiped out.

The only situation where that happens are a complete demand collapse or somehow catching up on the last 40-odd years of building that didn't happen for various reasons.

Equities can take a beating - and at least some definitely will as firms crumble under the debt they were loaded up with when servicing it was cheaper - and most people won't really be affected until they come to retire.

The only situation where that happens are a complete demand collapse

Yea - our population would have to stop growing and actually significantly reduce. What are the chances?

Let’s face it there’s fuck all chance of supply ever dealing with this - unless a new (and usefully proximate to somewhere worth being) land mass suddenly appears out of nowhere.

Won't help if no-one wants to live on the new land mass. It's not just population but where that population want to live.

Example: Wales.

Y u no Telford?

New live, laugh, love just dropped

1 Attachment

people in the property at the back of ours have started emailing about the tree which sits between my neighbour's and our garden, asking us to get it trimmed.

in all honesty, i'm not that keen on the tree - it's a self sown ash and may well eventually succumb to ash die back, but otoh i'm not in a massive hurry to do anything with it either.

my neighbours like the tree which is why i have not either pruned or got rid of it previously. should I just write back to the people behind as say they are welcome to cut it back from their garden if they'd like to? It's not really clear whether the tree is more in my neighbours garden or more in mine.

Yeah, they are entitled to trim whatever sits over their boundary.

Sounds like they might want it gone though?

his email just talked about "trimming". i am wondering if it wouldn't be better to get rid and plant something else though as ash don't respond that well to hard pruning and there is also ash die back to think of - would prefer to avoid two lots to tree surgeon related garden destruction.

If it's part of a boundary hedge then I'd be looking at the property deeds to see who's responsible.

Although you may still need permission from the council if there's a TPO on the tree of you're in a conservation area.

https://www.gov.uk/how-to-resolve-neighbour-disputes/high-hedges-trees-and-boundaries

Also doing it without asking first can easily lead to problems between neighbours (this happened to our neighbours and their neighbours on the other side).

We had a holly tree overhanging our garden and we agreed to pay half of the cost of getting it chopped down (with council permission as we're in a conservation area) as I hated the prickly leaves it shat all over the grass/beds in our garden.

Not in a conversation area. I think I previously checked for TPO but not 100% sure.

Yeah we are talking to our neighbours about it. Everyone is in vague agreement that we don't mind it being trimmed but no-one is actually doing anything about it.

edit: I was more wondering whether it was a bit bastard neighbour if I just say "yeah go ahead and trim" and then he has to
a) pay for it and
b) deal with all the mess via his garden / house

a) Do it yourself, try and clean up as much as possible (easier if you arrange access to their gardens)
b) Get some quotes from a tree surgeon to come and do it, and get everyone to agree to it and agree to what share they are paying, who is going to provide access, etc. Then book it, then have the fun getting money from neighbours after the fact.

Then book it, then have the fun getting money from neighbours after the fact, give up, make money back by selling the logs to other neighbours who then burn them over winter for heat