Russian invasion of Ukraine

That’s an interesting thought about the veil dropping off Wagner. Thanks for sharing.

Zaporizhzhia is getting more attention, again. Russian official quoted as saying they know of a possible Ukrainian attack planned for tonight, and the Ukrainians saying they’ve seen possible explosives installed on the roof…. And for all we know they could all be lying or telling the truth.

Twitter still puts news items in context unintentionally

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Glad for both parties that Sweden is likely joining NATO.

Sweden and Ukraine’s diametrically opposed situations notwithstanding, does anyone else think it highlights a negative aspect of Ukraine’s current comms strategy? Whether it’s just the media’s coverage or the facts on the ground, Zelenskyy appears to me to be -what’s the right word, complaining?- more about NATO not giving them a pathway for membership, as if NATO countries owed them membership or anything at all really. Ukraine being at war with Russia is just one of the reasons they’re not being considered for membership, the others being corruption, weak institutions, inconsistent rule of law.

They’ve done so well at winning over western audiences that I wonder if their strategy now has changed.

Sent out an hour ago. Seems I’m not the only one thinking Ukraine’s messaging is off. https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-nato-draft-text-on-ukraine-membership-timeline/

Lovely if true

https://www.strava.com/athletes/14384072

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Incredible...

Asking some important questions. A sprinkle of homophobia at the end threw me off a bit

Can’t screenshot on this device but there’s a photoshopped entry at a graveyard, 30 min walk/run, elevation -2m. War really fucks humans up.

I don't get the homophobia bit?

https://www.lfgss.com/comments/17033633/

Turns out the Tories biggest problem with the Ukrainians is that they don't grovel enough for their morsels:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/12/uk-defence-secretary-ben-wallace-suggests-ukraine-could-say-thank-you

Full quote in context was fair, unlike as the headline “be more grateful” makes out. Plenty wrong with current government, but Wallace suggesting that Zelenskyy needs to be careful of overplaying his hand when it comes to dealing with sceptical members in Washington and demanding more from European nations with finite stocks of arms seems fair.

Pretty sure having your borders secure is a prerequisite of NATO membership so until Russia fucks off there can't be a timetable

Yep, unless they can get Russia out of crimea then nato is off the table, assume knowing that, even if driven back Russia would maintain border skirmishes

I wonder what the chances are of Zelenskyy’s govt seeking to expedite their entry into NATO by giving up Crimea once they recover Donetsk and Luhansk. Would Ukrainians eventually forgive him, or would he be reviled like Antonio Lopez De Santa Ana who surrendered over half of Mexico to the US?

having your borders secure

Secure is not a definite term though. How secure is Lithuania's border for example?
To me a bigger problem is that a certain percentage of their population in the East actually want to join Russia (possibly brainwashed by Russian propaganda I know). And you don't necessarily want to permit a member state where a future armed uprising with foreign backing can't be entirely ruled out.

unless they can get Russia out of crimea then nato is off the table

Unless, after the current offensive, both sides sit down and new borders are drawn.

Why would Russia do this and let Ukraine join NATO

Is Ireland in nato?...

don't think so, Ireland is neutral like Switzerland

I think get your drift, and yeah, I don't necessarily think the UK would be an obvious candidate for membership either. Had they not been a founding member I mean. Let's say the UK had been neutral at first, then come asking for membership back at the height of the troubles. Or when Kenya and all the rest were fighting for independence. Would not have been entirely straightforward as far I am concerned.

The troubles in Northern Ireland in the 1970's are not even remotely similar to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, or even comparing with Kenya, those were relatively tiny internal security issues.

Its really quite simple, for obvious reasons Ukraine can't be admitted into NATO if its in a live, massive, shooting war with its neighbouring country. There has to be recognised peace and a reset before it can be done.

They gain territory and peace.

I expect they think they can achieve that with a frozen conflict and without opening the door to nato membership

Maybe. Is a frozen conflict as a likely prospect in the short to medium term? Fighting is intense and ground extremely hard fought. Both sides have the men and logistics.

I’d hope the obvious costs of continuing war would be reason enough to negotiate. As for selling a negotiated peace domestically - Russia don’t have their ‘buffer’ country but they have their buffer territory in Donetsk and Luhansk (and ‘liberated peoples’ blah blah).