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Inflation will appear,rising slowly at first but ...
this obviously doesn't apply. I'm not criticising the author for failing to predict the effect of COVID-19, the stimulus packages it triggered, or the war in Ukraine or anything else, but ... inflation is not "rising slowly" and I don't know why you'd keep reading past that point. The prediction has visibly parted company with reality.
Once this does hit the central banks will be slow to react with the right response as they themselves will be shocked at the speed and scale.They will panic and print direct into the economy by passing money/debt to governments at 0.1% or zero coupons.
M2 spiked at the start of 2020 and again last September.
M4 growth was high during 2020 until mid 2021, but has fallen back.It's far from obvious they're pumping lots of money into the economy. That could almost have applied to the quantitative easing, but that was already happening 4 or 5 years ago and is being unwound.
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useless
As much as Covid hasn't exactly helped this is the end of a cycle, this has been bedded in long before covid and this is happening over much of the developed world. This is a copy and paste but a good summary of what is happening. It was written about 4 or 5 years ago -
The great deflation cycle that started around 35 years ago is about to end with a deflationary collapse.During those 35 years interest rates have fallen to lower lows and made investing in equity/property very easy (they have always gone to higher highs).However that has also caused people to go way way along the risk curve for yield.The leverage on the system is beyond extreme.The Fed (and other central banks) missed out an entire tightening cycle,and in doing so have already made sure the recession dead ahead will see massive un-voluntary debt liquidation,a financial system in free fall and wealth destruction on a scale few can even imagine.Leverage is going to destroy business and individuals on a scale not seen since the late 1920s.Once this does hit the central banks will be slow to react with the right response as they themselves will be shocked at the speed and scale.They will panic and print direct into the economy by passing money/debt to governments at 0.1% or zero coupons.This is what will kick in the first reflation cycle since the 70s.Inflation will appear,rising slowly at first but increasing for perhaps a decade until it reaches double figures.Interest rates will follow,but being behind the curve perhaps through the whole cycle.The leveraged who survived the deflationary collapse will then suffer increasing interest rates for a decade.